MongoDB stock target cut to $345 by Citizens JMP

Published 06/03/2025, 11:24
MongoDB stock target cut to $345 by Citizens JMP

Following the release of this financial guidance, MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) shares experienced a downturn, falling 16% in aftermarket trading. This decline came after the stock had seen a year-to-date increase of 13%, in contrast to a 1% decrease for the Russell 3000. The current analyst consensus remains bullish with a "Buy" rating, and price targets ranging from $180 to $520. For detailed analysis and valuation metrics, investors can access MongoDB’s comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro, which provides in-depth insights into the company’s financial health and growth prospects. The current analyst consensus remains bullish with a "Buy" rating, and price targets ranging from $180 to $520. For detailed analysis and valuation metrics, investors can access MongoDB’s comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro, which provides in-depth insights into the company’s financial health and growth prospects.

Despite the positive earnings, MongoDB’s revenue growth showed a slight deceleration from the previous quarter’s 22% to 20%. Atlas (NYSE:ATCO) revenue growth, which is a key component of the company’s business, also slowed down to 25% from 26% in the last quarter. The company maintains strong financial health with a current ratio of 5.2 and holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet. MongoDB did improve its non-GAAP operating margin to 20.5%, up from 19.2% in the previous quarter, and well above the consensus forecast of 11.2%. InvestingPro subscribers have access to 8 additional key insights about MongoDB’s financial position and growth prospects, along with comprehensive analysis tools to make informed investment decisions.

Looking ahead, MongoDB presented mixed guidance for the upcoming periods. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company expects a non-GAAP EPS in the range of $0.63 to $0.67, which is slightly above the consensus estimate of $0.62. The projected operating income is between $54.0 million and $58.0 million on expected revenue of $524.0 million to $529.0 million, which aligns with the consensus revenue estimate of $527.1 million. This guidance suggests an approximate 17% growth at the midpoint.

For the full fiscal year 2026, MongoDB anticipates a non-GAAP EPS between $2.44 and $2.62, which is below the consensus estimate of $3.35. The forecasted operating income ranges from $210.0 million to $230.0 million on projected revenues of $2.240 billion to $2.280 billion. This indicates a growth rate of about 14% at the midpoint, which is lower than consensus expectations of $2.325 billion.

Following the release of this financial guidance, MongoDB shares experienced a downturn, falling 16% in aftermarket trading. This decline came after the stock had seen a year-to-date increase of 13%, in contrast to a 1% decrease for the Russell 3000.

In other recent news, MongoDB has reported impressive financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, with earnings per share reaching $1.28, far exceeding the forecasted $0.66. The company also achieved revenue of $548.4 million, surpassing expectations of $520.54 million. Despite these strong figures, the stock experienced a 16% drop in after-hours trading, reflecting investor concerns over future revenue growth projections. MongoDB’s Atlas platform, which contributed 71% of total revenue, saw a 24% year-over-year increase. The company also announced the acquisition of Voyage AI for $220 million and remains debt-free after redeeming its 2026 convertible notes.

Analysts have provided mixed feedback on MongoDB’s future prospects. BofA Securities reduced its price target for MongoDB to $286 from $420 but maintained a Buy rating, citing tempered revenue and margin forecasts for fiscal year 2026. Goldman Sachs also lowered its price target to $335 from $390 while reaffirming a Buy rating, noting that Atlas revenue exceeded expectations by 4%. However, the company’s revised FY26 revenue growth forecast of 12.6% fell short of the anticipated 17.5%.

MongoDB’s strategic focus includes expanding deals with well-funded accounts and leveraging AI through its recent acquisition of Voyage AI. The company aims to enhance its database capabilities in the AI era, with CEO Dave Idicheria emphasizing the transformative impact of AI on industries. MongoDB expects its FY2026 revenue to range between $2.240 billion and $2.280 billion, with a stable growth outlook for Atlas consumption, despite anticipated declines in non-Atlas subscription revenue.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.