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On Friday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) issued a new stock rating for Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099:JP) (OTC:IMHDF), downgrading it from Overweight to Equalweight and significantly reducing the price target to ¥2,200 from ¥3,200. The adjustment reflects Morgan Stanley’s revised forecasts for the retailer’s future earnings and sales performance.
The financial institution has adjusted its projections, expecting a 1% decrease in fiscal year 2025, a 6% reduction for fiscal year 2026, and a 5% decline for fiscal year 2027. The lowered expectations are attributed to anticipated drops in both domestic customer sales and inbound sales. Despite these downward revisions, Morgan Stanley’s analysts project a consolidated operating profit (OP) of ¥14.8 billion for the January-March 2025 period, which represents a 10% year-over-year increase and is slightly above the consensus estimate of ¥14.7 billion.
Morgan Stanley anticipates that Isetan Mitsukoshi will have to depend more on its own initiatives to drive earnings from fiscal year 2026 onward. The company’s strategy to target specific professional customer segments is expected to support continued growth in domestic customer sales. This approach is seen as a positive factor amid the broader challenges faced by the retailer.
The firm also acknowledges the potential for changes in the macroeconomic environment, which could impact the outlook, particularly in relation to U.S. tariff negotiations. However, Morgan Stanley also expresses concern over the company’s ability to quickly overcome near-term uncertainties. They note that it may take time for consumption of high-priced items to recover, especially given that their Macro (BCBA:BMAm) Team has lowered the real GDP growth outlook for calendar years 2025-2026 in Japan to approximately two-thirds of its previous forecast at the end of March.
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