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On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts downgraded Poste Italiane SpA (BIT:PST:IM) (OTC:PITAF) stock from an Overweight rating to Equalweight. The analysts also raised the company’s price target to €20.00 from €15.20, citing the stock’s significant rerating since the company’s 2025 strategic update and its acquisition of a stake in Telecom Italia (BIT:TLIT).
The analysts noted that Poste Italiane shares are now trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11x, which is above its historical average. They acknowledged the company’s strong execution, improved cash generation, and better capital position, which support the current valuation. However, they believe that most of the near-term visible upside is already reflected in the stock price.
Morgan Stanley expressed that without additional catalysts, there is no strong argument for further multiple expansion in the stock. Despite liking Poste Italiane’s diversified business model and structural strengths, the analysts view the near-term investment case as fully valued.
The analysts suggested that potential upside could arise from earlier-than-expected capital deployment or higher-than-expected synergies from the Telecom Italia acquisition. Conversely, they identified potential downside risks, including rising BTP spreads or a slowdown in incremental ecommerce penetration.
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