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On Monday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded shares of Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF), shifting its stance from Overweight to Equalweight, while significantly reducing the price target to $44.00 from the previous $82.00. The revision in rating and price target by Morgan Stanley reflects a shift in perspective due to heightened recession risks and their potential impact on the consumer credit company. The stock has already felt significant pressure, declining 32.35% year-to-date, with InvestingPro data showing the stock is currently trading in oversold territory.
The rationale behind the previous Overweight rating included expectations of a stable macroeconomic environment with positive real wage growth, alongside anticipated earnings per share (EPS) growth from increased pricing and credit card annual percentage rates (APRs). These were expected ahead of a new rule on late fees from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which is currently delayed in the courts. However, the potential for economic downturn has altered Morgan Stanley’s outlook. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro analysis indicates the company maintains a GOOD overall financial health score, with particularly strong profitability metrics.
Synchrony Financial’s business, which focuses on issuing retailer credit cards, is particularly sensitive to consumer discretionary spending. Given that 26% of Synchrony’s borrowers are considered subprime, they are more vulnerable to financial stress from inflation, especially on imported goods. Morgan Stanley projects a modest uptick in losses through 2026, coupled with slower loan growth and higher reserving, partially offset by lower revenue share agreements (RSA). These factors have led to an 18% reduction in the firm’s 2026 estimated EPS to $7.36, which is now 16% below the consensus due to anticipated higher credit card losses, reserves, and decelerated loan growth. According to InvestingPro data, the company currently trades at a P/E ratio of just 5.06x and offers a dividend yield of 2.28%, having maintained dividend payments for 10 consecutive years.
The new price target of $44 is based on a 6x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio on the 2026 estimated EPS, indicating no expected upside. Despite the downgrade, Morgan Stanley stopped short of assigning an Underweight rating. This decision was influenced by the stock’s current trading at approximately 5.6 times next twelve months (NTM) consensus EPS, or 6.1 times Morgan Stanley’s lower estimates, which is near the pre-COVID lows of about 5-6 times. The firm notes that if a recession occurs and unemployment rises to 5% or more, the stock’s multiple could face further downside risks based on today’s consensus estimates. For a comprehensive analysis of Synchrony Financial’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, which covers over 1,400 US stocks with deep-dive analysis and actionable insights.
In other recent news, Synchrony Financial has been upgraded by Fitch Ratings, which increased its Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings and Viability Rating to ’BBB’ and ’bbb’, respectively. This upgrade reflects Synchrony’s effective execution of financial strategies and its ability to manage regulatory risks. Furthermore, the firm has reported monthly credit statistics, providing transparency about its financial health and credit risk. These statistics are crucial for assessing the company’s operational efficiency and loan portfolio quality.
Meanwhile, BofA Securities has reaffirmed its Buy rating on Synchrony Financial with an $85 price target, citing confidence in the company’s business model despite potential regulatory changes. Analysts at BofA Securities suggest that the company’s stock valuation remains attractive, even with anticipated changes in earnings. Additionally, Synchrony Financial has noted that U.S. consumers are reducing spending due to rising prices and economic concerns, which aligns with broader industry trends.
In another significant development, Visa (NYSE:V) has made a $100 million bid to replace Mastercard (NYSE:MA) as the network for the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) credit card, amidst competition from American Express (NYSE:AXP) and other major financial entities. This move comes as Goldman Sachs plans to exit the consumer lending sector, intensifying the race among payment networks to partner with Apple.
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