Morgan Stanley downgrades NextDecade stock to Equalweight on lower cash flow outlook

Published 12/09/2025, 09:36
Morgan Stanley downgrades NextDecade stock to Equalweight on lower cash flow outlook

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley downgraded NextDecade Corp. (NASDAQ:NEXT) from Overweight to Equalweight on Wednesday, while reducing its price target to $10.00 from $15.00. The stock, currently trading at $7.66, has fallen over 28% in the past week. According to InvestingPro data, the company’s shares are currently fairly valued based on their proprietary Fair Value model.

The downgrade follows NextDecade’s Tuesday announcement that it reached Final Investment Decision (FID) on Train 4 of its Rio Grande project, with the company maintaining expectations for a fourth-quarter 2025 FID on Train 5.

While the project cost of $6.7 billion aligned with market expectations, NextDecade now projects approximately $1 billion in run-rate annual cash flow from the project, before corporate interest and overhead expenses, which falls at the lower end of its previously stated $0.9-1.3 billion range for the complete five-train project.

Morgan Stanley noted that NextDecade disclosed an implied sale and purchase agreement (SPA) rate of $2.35 for Trains 1-3 and $2.54 for Trains 4-5, with the latter figure coming in below the firm’s previous estimate of $2.63.

The company’s guidance also assumes a $5 margin on open cargo sales, higher than Morgan Stanley’s long-term assumption of $4 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), but with reduced run-rate cash flow estimates and limited near-term catalysts, the investment firm opted to downgrade the stock.

In other recent news, NextDecade Corporation announced a positive final investment decision on Train 4 at its Rio Grande LNG project. The company has secured approximately $6.7 billion in financial transactions to fully fund Train 4 and its related infrastructure. This financing includes a $3.85 billion term loan facility, $1.13 billion in equity commitments from NextDecade, and $1.7 billion from investment partners such as Global Infrastructure Partners, GIC, Mubadala Investment Company, and TotalEnergies. The construction of Train 4 will add around 6 million tonnes per annum of LNG production capacity, increasing the total expected capacity at Rio Grande LNG to about 24 million tonnes per annum.

Additionally, the company recently experienced a change in its Board of Directors. Mr. Timothy Wyatt resigned, citing his departure from Hanwha Group to pursue other opportunities, with no disagreements regarding NextDecade’s operations. The Hanwha Group intends to appoint a new director to the board as per their Purchaser Rights Agreement, though a timeline for this appointment has not been provided.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.