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On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Annelies Vermeulen upgraded the rating for SGS SA (SIX:SGSN:SW) (OTC:SGSOY) from Equalweight to Overweight, maintaining a price target of CHF 97.00. The adjustment follows the company’s first quarter 2025 results, which were released last week. Vermeulen cites increased foreign exchange headwinds, primarily due to the weakening of the USD, which has now been factored into their estimates at -2.7% compared to the -0.6% previously projected.
The firm’s analysts forecast a 6% organic growth for the fiscal year 2025, aligning with the midpoint of SGS’s own guidance range of 5-7%. Looking further ahead, Morgan Stanley has raised its expectations for organic growth for the fiscal years 2026-28 to approximately 6.5% annually, up from just above 5%. These projections remain consistent with SGS’s guidance for mid to high single-digit growth per year over the medium term.
Morgan Stanley also expects SGS’s margins to expand, forecasting a steady margin of 15.7%, which is in line with the company’s guidance for annual margin growth of at least 30 basis points. For reference, the fiscal year 2024 saw margins at 15.3%, indicating an improvement of 40 basis points according to Morgan Stanley’s estimates.
The revised estimates also take into account an increased share count for the fiscal year 2025 to reflect the uptake of the scrip dividend, with a 63% take-up rate creating approximately 5 million new shares. Despite this change, along with the foreign exchange impact, Morgan Stanley’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the fiscal years 2025-27 have only been adjusted downward by 3-4%. This is balanced by a roll-forward of their Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, which supports maintaining the price target at CHF 97.00.
Vermeulen’s report concludes that with a 21% upside potential, the upgrade to Overweight is justified for SGS SA stock.
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