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On Monday, H.C. Wainwright analyst Andrew Fein adjusted the price target for Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ:NBIX) to $185 from the previous $190 while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. This revision follows the company’s announcement yesterday that Ingrezza, its flagship product, generated revenue of $615 million, a 23% year-over-year increase, although slightly missing the consensus forecast of $623 million and H.C. Wainwright’s own estimate of $618 million. According to InvestingPro data, the stock appears undervalued despite a sharp 18% decline over the past week, with analysts maintaining price targets ranging from $140 to $192.
The lower-than-expected full-year 2025 Ingrezza revenue guidance, suggesting a 10% year-over-year growth compared to the anticipated 15%, seems to have prompted the price target adjustment. The conservative outlook may stem from heightened competition from Austedo and potential shifts in payer dynamics, which could include seasonal factors or increased discounts demanded by payers. Despite these challenges, H.C. Wainwright anticipates further growth opportunities due to Ingrezza’s low market penetration and its favorable risk-benefit profile when compared to competitors. The company’s strong financial position is evident in its "GREAT" overall health score on InvestingPro, with a robust current ratio of 3.4x and moderate debt levels.
Ingrezza’s market position is strengthened by its lack of contraindications for suicidal patients or those with untreated depression, common issues among Huntington’s Disease patients, unlike its competitor Austedo. Additionally, Ingrezza is not contraindicated in patients with hepatic impairments or those taking certain medications, which could further support its adoption. This competitive advantage has helped drive impressive revenue growth of 24.8% over the last twelve months, as reported in InvestingPro’s comprehensive research report, which provides deeper insights into the company’s market position and growth metrics.
Neurocrine Biosciences also reported sales of $2 million for its newly launched drug, Crenessity, in the last two weeks of December. This early performance is seen as promising by H.C. Wainwright. The firm’s updated revenue estimates for Ingrezza, taking into account the latest guidance, led to the revised price target. Nonetheless, the firm reiterated its Buy rating on Neurocrine Biosciences, signaling continued confidence in the company’s stock. With a market capitalization of $12.4 billion and strong profitability metrics, including a gross profit margin of 67.5%, the company maintains a solid foundation for future growth.
In other recent news, Neurocrine Biosciences experienced a fall in stock due to a revenue miss. Despite a 26% growth in INGREZZA® net product sales in 2024, the company’s 2025 guidance didn’t meet investor expectations. The company reported net product sales of $615 million in the fourth quarter and $2.3 billion for the full year, which fell short of analyst estimates. BofA Securities, Canaccord Genuity, and Cantor Fitzgerald have all adjusted their outlooks on the company, with BofA Securities and Canaccord Genuity lowering their price targets while maintaining Buy ratings.
In other developments, Neurocrine Biosciences announced the launch of CRENESSITY™ and the progression of Phase 3 programs for osavampator and NBI-’568. The company also altered its partnership with Takeda on the AMPA program, granting Neurocrine full worldwide development and commercialization rights, except in Japan. This move was perceived positively by Stifel analysts, who maintained their price target and Buy rating.
Investors are now looking forward to the first quarter sales figures and the impact of CRENESSITY’s launch. These recent developments highlight the evolving dynamics within Neurocrine Biosciences as they navigate through their financial and strategic milestones.
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