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UBS downgraded Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) (OTC:NESRF) stock rating from Buy to Neutral on Wednesday, lowering its price target to AUD23.00 from AUD25.80. The gold miner, currently valued at $19.08 billion, maintains a "GREAT" financial health score according to InvestingPro data.
The rating change follows what UBS described as a "disappointing" March quarter performance, with the mining company now working to rebuild confidence in productivity levels at its Super Pit operation before updating fiscal year 2026 guidance.
Northern Star maintains its FY26 production guidance at 2 million ounces, though UBS noted the market has been forecasting around 1.85 million ounces for some time, with UBS itself projecting 1.81 million ounces.
The investment bank has trimmed its growth trajectory for Northern Star and delayed the company’s Hemi project by 12 months, with first production now expected in the March quarter of 2028.
Despite Northern Star shares rising 39% year-to-date (actual return of 44.81% according to InvestingPro), UBS expects the company to "cleanse" its guidance at the upcoming KCGM site visit in early August, with the firm reducing its FY26/27 earnings per share estimates by 6% each due to approximately 3% lower production forecasts. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock appears to be trading near its fair value, with a P/E ratio of 25.12x.
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