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Benchmark reiterated its Hold rating on Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:ODFL) following the release of the company’s quarter-to-date operating data. The firm’s analysis came after a virtual investor meeting with ODFL’s CFO Adam Satterfield last week. According to InvestingPro data, ODFL maintains strong financial health with a 27% return on equity and holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, demonstrating solid financial management.
The less-than-truckload carrier’s volumes continue to face pressure in the second quarter, with tonnage down 8.6% quarter-to-date, matching Benchmark’s forecast. Despite volume challenges, revenue quality remains solid with mid-single digit revenue per hundredweight growth. The company generated $5.73 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, maintaining a healthy gross profit margin of nearly 40%.
Old Dominion’s yield excluding fuel is trending slightly higher than Benchmark’s 5.0% estimate and aligns with the company’s guidance range of 5.0%-5.5%, reflecting continued strength in pricing. The operating ratio could potentially be slightly below guidance for a sequential 100 basis point improvement.
Benchmark noted that given the large increase in fixed costs as a percentage of revenue compared to 2022, ODFL believes it can still achieve a sub-70% operating ratio once volumes recover. The firm considers this assessment reasonable.
The research firm expressed approval of Old Dominion’s strategy of avoiding Yellow (OTC:YELLQ) terminals and volume, which it characterized as "the better move for now" compared to competitor Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA)’s approach, though Benchmark maintains its preference for Buy-rated Saia and XPO over ODFL. InvestingPro analysis suggests ODFL is trading near its Fair Value, with 8 additional key insights available to subscribers. Get access to the comprehensive Pro Research Report covering ODFL and 1,400+ other stocks for deeper investment analysis.
In other recent news, Old Dominion Freight Line has reported a 5.8% year-over-year decline in revenue per day for May, primarily driven by an 8.4% decrease in less-than-truckload (LTL) tons per day. Despite these challenges, the company saw a 3.2% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight, with a 5.6% rise when excluding fuel surcharges for the quarter-to-date. Goldman Sachs has upgraded Old Dominion’s stock rating to Buy, raising the price target to $200, reflecting a positive outlook on the company’s potential growth trajectory. In contrast, BofA Securities and BMO Capital Markets have adjusted their price targets downward to $171 and $175, respectively, citing ongoing revenue challenges and demand headwinds.
Benchmark analyst Christopher Kuhn maintained a Hold rating on Old Dominion, noting the company’s first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19, which exceeded expectations but marked an 11% decline from the previous year. Despite the decline, the company achieved a better-than-expected operating ratio due to lower costs. Old Dominion anticipates a 5% year-over-year decrease in second-quarter revenue, with total revenue expected around $1.4 billion. The company has also reduced its capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 to $450 million, deferring real estate and equipment spending.
Analysts from BMO Capital Markets revised their earnings per share estimates downward by 5.8% for fiscal year 2025 and 6% for 2026, maintaining a Market Perform rating. Despite the challenges, Old Dominion’s management remains confident in its market share stability and long-term strategic plan, emphasizing industry-leading service and yield management initiatives.
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