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On Monday, Stifel analysts adjusted their outlook on PepGen Inc. (NASDAQ:PEPG), reducing the price target to $14 from $17 while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. Currently trading at $2.70, the stock sits within a wide analyst target range of $3 to $20. According to InvestingPro data, the stock has experienced significant volatility, with a 90% decline over the past year. The revision follows PepGen’s latest update on their DM1 treatment, shared in conjunction with the company’s fourth-quarter earnings of 2024.
The analysts highlighted the Phase 1 Single Ascending Dose (SAD) study of PGN-EDODM1, which showed a dose-dependent improvement in splicing, with a 29% mean correction at four weeks in the 10mg/kg cohort. This biomarker data, along with a satisfactory safety profile, is believed to bolster the likelihood of regulatory approval for the program. The study has progressed to a higher 15mg/kg dosing in the SAD. InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains a strong current ratio of 8.47, indicating solid short-term financial stability despite ongoing research investments.
Despite the positive biomarker results, the analysts noted that the functional data were not interpretable due to significant baseline imbalances and noise after a single dose. However, they suggest that this does not detract from the overall potential of the treatment.
The report also touched on PepGen’s Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) program, indicating that results from the 10mg/kg cohort in the open-label Multiple Ascending Dose (MAD) study, which is now fully enrolled, are forthcoming. Nevertheless, the analysts have incorporated a higher degree of risk into their valuation model for the DMD program, prompted by renal safety signals and ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
The Stifel team concluded their remarks by expressing continued support for PepGen’s stock, citing a favorable setup despite the adjustments made to their Probability of Success (PoS) estimates for both the DM1 and DMD programs and the updated financial model reflecting the latest quarter. InvestingPro data reveals the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, though it’s quickly burning through cash with an EBITDA of -$92.73 million in the last twelve months. Subscribers to InvestingPro can access 12 additional investment tips and comprehensive financial metrics to better evaluate PepGen’s investment potential.
In other recent news, PepGen Inc. has reported promising initial data from its FREEDOM-DM1 Phase 1 trial for PGN-EDODM1, a treatment for myotonic dystrophy type 1. The trial showed significant splicing correction in patients after a single dose, with a notable mean correction of 29.1% at the higher 10 mg/kg dose. Meanwhile, PepGen’s CONNECT1-EDO51 Phase 2 trial for Duchenne muscular dystrophy in Canada has completed enrollment for the 10 mg/kg cohort, despite the U.S. FDA placing a clinical hold on the CONNECT2-EDO51 trial. H.C. Wainwright has adjusted its financial outlook for PepGen, reducing the price target to $16 while maintaining a Buy rating, due to safety data from the CONNECT1 trial. Conversely, BofA Securities downgraded PepGen to Underperform and lowered its price target to $3, citing uncertainty over the FDA’s clinical hold on the CONNECT2 trial. The FDA’s decision affects PepGen’s Investigational New Drug application, delaying the U.S. trial’s initiation. Despite these challenges, PepGen continues to work with regulatory bodies to address safety concerns and advance its clinical programs.
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