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On Friday, Piper Sandler adjusted its stance on Akamai Technologies shares, downgrading the stock from Overweight to Neutral and reducing the price target to $100 from $112. The revision followed Akamai’s fourth-quarter results and the introduction of a new three to five-year business framework. According to InvestingPro data, Akamai currently trades at a P/E ratio of 28.3x, which appears high relative to its near-term earnings growth prospects.
Akamai, listed on (NASDAQ:AKAM) with a market capitalization of $14.8 billion, received a more cautious outlook from Piper Sandler due to several factors. The firm’s analysts noted that the company’s initial 2025 guidance was lower than expected and that the new long-term plan may be overly optimistic. This sentiment echoes concerns from past instances where Akamai did not meet analyst day targets. The company’s revenue growth stands at 5.92% over the last twelve months, with analysts forecasting 5% growth for fiscal year 2024.
Despite the downgrade, the analysts acknowledged positive developments within the company. They highlighted Akamai’s progress in Enterprise Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), changes in its go-to-market strategy, and delivery stabilization outside of its TikTok-related business. These areas were seen as encouraging signs for the company’s direction. InvestingPro analysis reveals two key insights: management has been aggressively buying back shares, and the stock generally trades with low price volatility (with 6 more exclusive insights available to subscribers).
However, the overall picture painted by Piper Sandler was one of caution. The firm pointed to several challenges Akamai is facing, including low growth in its core Security segment, declining margins, the need for increased capital expenditures, and questions about revenue substitution. Furthermore, the fastest-growing parts of Akamai’s business, such as Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA), IaaS, and API security solutions, still represent a small fraction of the overall company revenue, which is a concern as the core business slows.
Investors were advised to seek opportunities elsewhere until Akamai’s situation becomes clearer. The firm’s analysts suggested that the current complexities within Akamai’s operations and future plans warrant a more neutral position on the stock until some of the uncertainties are resolved.
In other recent news, Akamai Technologies reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.66, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.52, with revenue reaching $1.02 billion, slightly above the projected $1.01 billion and marking a 3% increase year-over-year. Despite these positive results, Akamai’s guidance for the first quarter and the full year 2025 fell short of expectations, leading to a negative reaction from investors. The company forecasted first-quarter earnings per share between $1.54 and $1.59, below the consensus of $1.61, and anticipated revenue of $1 to $1.02 billion, compared to the expected $1.04 billion. For the full year 2025, Akamai projects earnings per share of $6.00 to $6.40, significantly lower than the $6.82 analysts had estimated, with revenue forecasts of $4 to $4.2 billion, falling short of the $4.25 billion consensus. CEO Dr. Tom Leighton noted the company’s solid fourth-quarter performance, highlighting robust profitability and growth in security and cloud computing solutions. Security revenue increased by 14% year-over-year to $535 million in the fourth quarter, and compute revenue rose by 24% to $167 million. However, delivery revenue experienced a decline of 18%, amounting to $318 million.
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