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On Thursday, Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin adjusted the price target for MongoDB stock, listed on (NASDAQ:MDB), to $280 from the previous $425, while continuing to recommend the stock with an Overweight rating. The revision comes in response to MongoDB’s less-than-expected growth outlook and the impact of certain headwinds on the company’s financial estimates. According to InvestingPro data, MongoDB’s stock currently trades at $264.13, with analyst targets ranging from $180 to $520, reflecting mixed sentiment in the market.
Bracelin cited Enterprise Agreement (EA) headwinds, which prompted a reduction in the forecast for fiscal year 2026 growth to 12.8%, down from the previously anticipated 17%. This adjustment marks the second consecutive year where MongoDB has projected initial guidance below 14%. The analyst pointed out that the volatile non-Atlas segment, which accounts for 30% of MongoDB’s sales and is influenced by ASC 606 accounting standards and multi-year contracts, has detracted from the robust growth of the Atlas (NYSE:ATCO) segment. InvestingPro data shows MongoDB maintains strong financial health with a current ratio of 5.2 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet, suggesting ample liquidity to weather near-term challenges.
Despite the lower growth expectations and subsequent decrease in the price target, Bracelin remains optimistic about MongoDB’s Atlas segment, which represents 70% of sales and is expected to grow over 20% this year. This optimism is based on stable consumption and the segment’s move up-market. The analyst’s confidence in MongoDB’s potential upside has been affected, yet he believes that the risk-reward balance at the new price target of $280 is still favorable, especially after the recent sell-off. The current calendar year 2026 enterprise value to sales (EV/S) multiple has dropped to 6.6x, a significant decrease from around 13x a year earlier.
Bracelin’s analysis reflects a cautious but still positive stance on MongoDB’s stock, acknowledging the execution risks while also recognizing the company’s growth prospects in its Atlas segment.
In other recent news, MongoDB has been the focus of several analyst updates following its latest financial disclosures. The company reported fourth-quarter revenues of $548 million, a 20% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $519 million. However, MongoDB’s revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 projected a 12.6% year-over-year growth, falling short of the expected 18%. This guidance shortfall has led to a series of price target adjustments from various analysts.
Canaccord Genuity reduced its price target for MongoDB to $320 but retained a Buy rating, emphasizing the company’s strategic positioning in the AI sector. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities lowered its price target to $250 and maintained a Neutral rating, reflecting concerns about the company’s conservative growth projections. Needham adjusted its target to $270 while keeping a Buy rating, pointing to the company’s focus on its Atlas platform for future growth.
Truist Securities also decreased its price target to $300, maintaining a Buy rating despite noting that MongoDB’s forward guidance did not meet Wall Street expectations. Stifel cut its target to $340, retaining a Buy rating, and highlighted the strong performance of MongoDB’s Atlas service, which exceeded expectations. These developments indicate that while MongoDB has shown strong recent performance, its future growth projections have prompted a cautious reassessment from analysts.
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