Piper Sandler cuts Xponential Fitness stock target to $9

Published 14/03/2025, 15:52
Piper Sandler cuts Xponential Fitness stock target to $9

On Friday, Piper Sandler analyst Korinne Wolfmeyer adjusted the price target for Xponential Fitness Inc (NYSE:XPOF) stock, bringing it down to $9.00 from the previous $16.00. The stock currently trades at $7.81, near its 52-week low of $7.40, having declined nearly 10% year-to-date according to InvestingPro data. Despite this change, the firm has decided to maintain a Neutral rating on the company’s shares. Wolfmeyer’s assessment indicates that the company is navigating through challenging times, with the revised 2025 outlook and unclear unit growth trajectory applying downward pressure on the stock.

The analyst noted that while Xponential Fitness is actively working to improve its position—by refining its portfolio, strengthening franchisee relationships, and pursuing international expansion—these positive steps are currently overshadowed by the struggles of some brands and the pressure on unit performance. The company maintains impressive gross margins of 66.6%, though it remains unprofitable with a net loss in the last twelve months. Wolfmeyer acknowledged that if the company’s efforts bear fruit, the long-term outlook post-2025 could be promising, especially given the inherent value of XPOF’s flagship brand, Club Pilates.

However, Wolfmeyer expressed caution regarding the near-term prospects, citing persistent challenges that are hindering a more optimistic view. The sentiment suggests that while the firm is not adopting a bearish stance, it is also not in a position to advocate for purchasing the stock at this juncture. The new price target of $9 reflects these concerns and the cautious stance Piper Sandler is taking with regards to Xponential Fitness. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued at current levels, with additional insights available in the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which provides deep-dive analysis of XPOF and 1,400+ other US stocks.

In other recent news, Xponential Fitness reported a significant earnings miss for Q4 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) at -$0.19, far below the forecasted $0.38. Despite this, the company’s revenue slightly exceeded expectations, reaching $83.2 million compared to the anticipated $81.42 million. For the full year, Xponential Fitness achieved revenue of $320.3 million, marking a 1% increase year-over-year. In response to these results, Jefferies analyst Randal Konik maintained a Buy rating on the stock but reduced the price target from $36 to $32, citing a strong business model despite lighter EBITDA figures. Conversely, Stifel downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold and slashed the price target to $12, pointing to deeper-than-expected operational challenges and financial restatements. The company plans to open 200-220 new studios globally in 2025, focusing on franchisee profitability with a target EBITDA margin of 20-25%. With a new CEO, Xponential Fitness is addressing these operational issues and restructuring to stabilize and improve investor confidence.

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