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On Wednesday, Piper Sandler reaffirmed its positive stance on Akebia Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AKBA) shares, maintaining an Overweight rating and a price target of $6.00. Currently trading at $1.97, the stock has experienced a significant 31% decline over the past week, though it maintains an impressive 47% gain over the last six months, according to InvestingPro data. The firm’s analysts are encouraging investors to continue buying AKBA shares, reflecting on the company’s recent financial move involving a 25 million share financing. This strategic financial step followed the company’s fourth-quarter 2024 report, which revealed an anticipated first-quarter 2025 Vafseo revenue projection between $10 million and $11 million. These figures notably surpass both the consensus and Piper Sandler’s own estimates.
The optimistic outlook is partly due to Vafseo’s performance since its launch, which has exceeded expectations based on year-to-date launch metrics. With a market capitalization of $465 million and analyst price targets ranging from $6 to $10, the company shows significant upside potential despite current challenges. InvestingPro analysis reveals additional insights about Akebia’s market position and growth prospects in its comprehensive Pro Research Report. By the end of February, the product had attracted over 500 prescribers who issued around 4,000 prescriptions. This volume is approximately four times higher than that of Xphozah during a comparable period post-launch. Piper Sandler interprets these early indicators as promising signs for Vafseo’s potential in the dialysis market.
In addition to the success in the dialysis sector, Akebia Therapeutics also appears poised to tap into the significant non-dialysis market. Later in the year, the company is expected to initiate the Phase 3 VALOR trial, which could further highlight Vafseo’s market opportunities. Despite these developments and the recent share financing, Piper Sandler has decided to keep the price target unchanged at $6 per share.
The sustained Overweight rating and price target reflect Piper Sandler’s confidence in Akebia Therapeutics’ current trajectory and future prospects. The company’s financial strategies, coupled with the strong initial performance of Vafseo, suggest a bright outlook, at least from the perspective of Piper Sandler’s analysis. InvestingPro rates Akebia’s overall financial health as ’FAIR,’ with particularly strong momentum scores. Investors will likely watch closely as Akebia continues to advance its product lineup and expands its market reach throughout the year. For deeper insights into Akebia’s financial metrics and growth potential, explore the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, Akebia Therapeutics reported its Q4 2024 earnings, revealing a net loss and a revenue decline compared to the previous year. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) came in at -$0.10, missing the forecast of -$0.07, and revenue fell short at $46.49 million against the expected $49.57 million. Akebia has also launched an underwritten public offering of its common stock, with Leerink Partners and Piper Sandler & Co. serving as joint bookrunning managers. The offering’s completion is subject to market conditions, and no assurances can be made regarding the final terms or successful completion.
Analyst firm H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating on Akebia’s stock with a price target of $7.50, citing strong early commercial performance of Vafseo, which outperformed initial sales estimates. Piper Sandler also raised its price target for Akebia to $6.00 from $4.00, highlighting the promising launch progress of Vafseo. Akebia expects Vafseo’s revenue for the first quarter of 2025 to be between $10 million and $11 million, nearly double the consensus estimates. These developments reflect a positive outlook from analysts on Akebia’s commercial strategy and the early success of Vafseo in the market.
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