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On Friday, Piper Sandler analyst Allison M. Bratzel increased the price target on Akebia Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AKBA) stock to $6.00 from the previous $4.00, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. According to InvestingPro data, analysts maintain a strong buy consensus with price targets ranging from $6.00 to $10.00, suggesting significant upside potential. Bratzel’s optimism is rooted in the promising launch progress of Akebia’s drug, Vafseo, which she believes is performing well above expectations. Despite a 15% drop in Akebia’s stock price today, Bratzel suggests that the market’s reaction does not align with the drug’s potential, as evidenced by the company’s recent quarterly report. InvestingPro data shows the stock’s RSI indicates oversold conditions, while the company maintains a "GOOD" overall Financial Health Score of 2.52 out of 5, with a market capitalization of approximately $500 million.
Akebia Therapeutics reported that Vafseo’s revenue for the first quarter of 2025 is projected to be between $10 million and $11 million, which would be nearly double the consensus and Piper Sandler Companies’ (PSC) estimates. This potential boost comes as the company’s trailing twelve-month revenue stands at $170 million, with an impressive gross profit margin of 84%. This positive outlook is based on approximately 4,000 prescriptions issued by over 500 prescribers through the end of February. This prescription volume for Vafseo is about four times higher than that of a competing drug, Xphozah, at a comparable stage following its launch.
Bratzel’s analysis indicates that the early success of Vafseo could significantly reduce the commercial risk associated with the drug, which is aimed at the dialysis market. The robust prescription figures are seen as a strong indicator of Vafseo’s market acceptance and potential for growth. For deeper insights into Akebia’s financial health and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, which covers over 1,400 US stocks with expert analysis and actionable intelligence. Bratzel reaffirms the firm’s position as buyers of Akebia shares, now with an increased price target of $6.00 per share.
Akebia Therapeutics’ stock reaction on Friday, with a considerable decline, seems to be at odds with the analyst’s perspective on the company’s recent achievements. Bratzel’s comments underscore a belief in the underlying value of Akebia’s product and the company’s ability to capitalize on its commercial opportunity. The updated price target reflects Piper Sandler’s confidence in Akebia’s trajectory and the anticipated success of Vafseo in the market.
In other recent news, Akebia Therapeutics announced its Q4 2024 earnings, reporting a net loss and a decline in revenue compared to the previous year. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) was -$0.10, missing the forecasted -$0.07, and revenue fell short of expectations at $46.49 million, below the anticipated $49.57 million. Despite these financial setbacks, Akebia launched a new product, VAPSEO, aimed at treating anemia in dialysis patients. Analysts from firms like Piper Sandler have noted the company’s efforts to establish VAPSEO as a standard treatment in this market. Akebia’s cash reserves were reported at $51.9 million, with additional funds raised post-year-end to support operations. The company plans to generate $10-11 million in net product revenue from VAPSEO in Q1 2025 and is preparing to expand its use to non-dialysis patients. Akebia’s CEO expressed confidence in their strategy and the potential of VAPSEO to drive future growth.
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