What the bad jobs report means for markets
On Tuesday, Piper Sandler adjusted its outlook on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) shares, increasing the price target to $295 from the previous $260, while retaining an Overweight rating on the stock. The adjustment followed the financial institution’s annual investor day, which took place in New York City.
During the event, JPMorgan’s management confirmed its medium-term and full-year 2025 financial targets, which include a 17% through-the-cycle return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) and a net interest income (NII) forecast of approximately $94.5 billion, or roughly $90 billion excluding market-related income. The expense forecast for the same period was set at around $95 billion, which incorporates about $18 billion in firm-wide technology expenses. Additionally, the company projected Card Services net charge-offs (NCOs) to be around 3.6% for FY25. InvestingPro data reveals that JPM has maintained dividend payments for 55 consecutive years, with a notable 21.7% dividend growth in the last twelve months.
The analyst noted that there were no groundbreaking announcements made during the investor day. However, there was a hint that the NII guidance for FY25 could potentially increase by approximately $1 billion if current conditions continue, with an update possible at the time of the second-quarter earnings report. The new second-quarter 2025 capital markets guidance appeared to be better for markets but weaker for investment banking than previously expected by Piper Sandler.
Despite numerous inquiries, JPMorgan did not provide any new information regarding the timing of its executive succession plans. The analyst described the investor day as a typically constructive deep-dive into all aspects of the company, reinforcing the case for JPMorgan’s continued success without delivering any surprising revelations. Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating, signaling confidence in the bank’s ongoing performance. With analyst targets ranging from $195 to $330 and a "Good" financial health score from InvestingPro, JPM continues to demonstrate its position as a prominent player in the banking sector. For deeper insights into JPM’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, JPMorgan Chase & Co. announced a quarterly dividend for its common stock shareholders, although specific details regarding the dividend amount and payment schedule were not disclosed. The bank also reaffirmed its net interest income forecast for the year at approximately $94.5 billion, aligning closely with Bloomberg’s consensus estimate. Additionally, JPMorgan anticipates an adjusted expense of about $95 billion for the year and has outlined a firmwide technology expense forecast of around $18 billion by 2025, emphasizing investments in data and AI. During its Investor Day, JPMorgan’s management highlighted the potential use of its nearly $60 billion in excess capital for acquisitions, organic growth, and share buybacks, with a focus on fintech and asset management sectors. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintained a Market Perform rating on JPMorgan with a price target of $253, while Truist Securities held a Hold rating with a $251 target, citing the bank’s strategy to achieve top-tier returns. In broader industry news, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts predict a rise in bank mergers and acquisitions in the second half of the year as recession risks diminish. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon indicated he plans to remain in his role for several more years, with a potential future transition to a non-executive Chairman position.
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