Progressive stock price target lowered to $279 by BMO Capital

Investing.com - BMO Capital lowered its price target on Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) to $279.00 from $281.00 on Thursday, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the insurance company’s stock. According to InvestingPro data, the company, currently valued at $147 billion, trades at a P/E ratio of 14.07, with analyst targets ranging from $189 to $344.

The price target reduction follows BMO’s analysis of Progressive’s July performance, which showed continued strong auto margins despite some weakness in premium growth. The firm reduced its forward estimates by approximately 1% due to weaker premiums-per-policy trends, primarily in Home and Commercial Lines. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains a "GREAT" financial health score of 3.5/5, with impressive revenue growth of 21.5% over the last twelve months. For deeper insights into Progressive’s financial health and 11 additional exclusive ProTips, consider exploring InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis tools.

Progressive’s policy-in-force growth was approximately 90 basis points in personal auto, aligning with BMO Capital’s estimates. The Direct channel performed about 10 basis points ahead of expectations, while the Agency channel lagged by roughly 10 basis points.

The insurance company missed top-line growth projections primarily due to weaker premium-per-policy trends in Commercial and Home segments. BMO maintained its policy-in-force estimates, which were approximately in line with actual results this quarter.

BMO Capital noted that Progressive’s expense ratio increased by approximately 2.5 percentage points month-over-month in the Direct channel, consistent with last year’s seasonality when the company registered record growth in a less competitive environment.

In other recent news, Progressive Corporation has announced a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, payable to shareholders in October 2025. This follows the company’s earnings report, which prompted Keefe, Bruyette & Woods to reiterate a Market Perform rating while adjusting their earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) maintained an Overweight rating on Progressive, though it lowered its price target to $327, citing strong monthly results and stable policy additions. In contrast, BofA Securities increased its price target to $344, reflecting an expansion in the S&P 500 P/E multiple for 2026. Meanwhile, Barclays (LON:BARC) lowered its price target to $281 due to valuation concerns, noting that Progressive trades below its 10-year average price-to-earnings multiple. These developments highlight varied analyst perspectives on Progressive’s financial outlook and market position.

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