Raymond James lifts Cheesecake Factory target to $60

Published 20/02/2025, 12:18
Raymond James lifts Cheesecake Factory target to $60

On Thursday, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James analyst Brian Vaccaro increased the price target on Cheesecake Factory stock (NASDAQ:CAKE) to $60 from the previous target of $56, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the shares. The adjustment follows the company’s strong fourth-quarter performance and positive sales trends. The stock has demonstrated remarkable momentum, delivering a 60.59% return over the past year. According to InvestingPro, 4 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, suggesting growing confidence in the company’s prospects.

Cheesecake Factory reported a robust fourth quarter with operating earnings per share (EPS) of $1.04, surpassing the $0.91 estimate by Raymond James. The results were fueled by higher-than-anticipated revenue and impressive store margins. With a market capitalization of $2.8 billion and a healthy gross profit margin of 42.19%, the company maintains strong operational efficiency. Despite challenges from adverse weather conditions, which impacted sales by approximately $7 million, the company’s first-quarter guidance projects total revenue between $920 million and $930 million, with eight new unit openings and net margins between 4.3% and 4.4%. InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis indicates GOOD overall financial health, with particularly strong scores in profit and price momentum metrics.

The company’s fourth-quarter total revenue saw a year-over-year increase of 5% to $921 million, slightly above Raymond James’ estimate. This was attributed to Cheesecake Factory’s comparable sales growth of 1.7% and stronger new unit volumes at North Italia and Flower Child. Trading at a P/E ratio of 20.41, the stock appears reasonably valued relative to its near-term earnings growth potential. Consolidated store margins improved significantly, with the Cheesecake segment reaching a new multi-year high margin of 18.4%, and North Italia’s mature units hitting their target margin of 18.8%. For deeper insights into CAKE’s valuation and growth metrics, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, which covers over 1,400 US stocks.

The analyst’s optimism extends to the company’s long-term growth potential, with expectations for approximately 200 new North Italia locations and potentially around 700 Flower Child sites. The 2025 revenue guidance was revised upwards by $50 million to $3.8 billion, with a consistent net margin guidance of 4.75%.

In light of these developments, Raymond James has raised its non-GAAP EPS estimate for 2025 by $0.07 to $3.69, assuming total revenue of $3.76 billion. The firm also initiated a 2026 EPS estimate of $4.14, representing a 12% year-over-year growth, with projected total revenue of $3.96 billion and 26 unit openings.

In other recent news, The Cheesecake Factory reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations, with earnings per share of $1.04 surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.91. The company’s revenue reached $921.0 million, also beating the projected $912.04 million, marking a 5% increase from the previous year. The restaurant chain opened nine new locations in the quarter and plans to open up to 25 more in fiscal 2025. Oppenheimer analysts maintained an Outperform rating for Cheesecake Factory, expressing confidence in the company’s potential to exceed its 2025 financial targets. Citi raised its price target for the company to $66, citing operational improvements and potential margin enhancements. Raymond James also increased its price target to $56, highlighting the growth potential of brands like North Italia and Flower Child. Stephens raised its target to $57, maintaining an Overweight rating, and noted the company’s stable traffic in a challenging sector. These developments suggest a positive outlook from multiple analysts regarding The Cheesecake Factory’s financial performance and growth prospects.

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