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On Thursday, RBC Capital Markets reiterated their positive stance on Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:OLLI) with an unchanged Outperform rating and a $133.00 price target. According to InvestingPro data, the stock currently trades above its Fair Value, with analyst targets ranging from $105 to $135. The affirmation follows a review of the company’s fourth-quarter performance, which reinforced the analyst’s belief in Ollie’s strong underlying business fundamentals and potential for market share gains from competitors like Big Lots (NYSE:BIG).
Steven Shemesh from RBC Capital noted the health of Ollie’s underlying business and the potential upside from Big Lots’ market share gains and share repurchases. This assessment aligns with InvestingPro analysis, which shows the company maintains a strong financial health score of GOOD, with a current ratio of 3.27 and moderate debt levels. He adjusted the company’s financial model slightly based on new details provided by Ollie’s, although the full-year estimates remain largely unchanged. Shemesh’s forecast for the company’s comparable sales growth is set at 3.5% for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026, with net sales expected to increase by 15.4% and 10.3%, respectively, for those years.
The analyst’s projections for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are $3.90 for 2025 and $4.43 for 2026, with a slight modification to the 2026 EPS estimate from $4.44 to $4.43. The price target of $133 is based on approximately 30 times the revised 2026 adjusted EPS estimate, reflecting the company’s current P/E ratio of 30.67 and revenue growth of 8.04% over the last twelve months. Get access to 10+ additional key insights about OLLI with an InvestingPro subscription.
RBC Capital anticipates that buy-side EPS estimates for 2025 will likely be revised upwards to between $3.80 and $3.90. This adjustment could lead to increased pressure on the stock’s multiple, as upward revisions are now deemed more probable than downward ones. The analyst’s outlook suggests a positive trajectory for Ollie’s stock, with the potential for earnings estimates to climb higher, providing a bullish case for the company’s shares moving forward. However, InvestingPro data indicates that 5 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period.
In other recent news, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, meeting expectations with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.19, despite a slight revenue miss. The company achieved a 3% year-over-year increase in net sales to $667 million, driven by new stores and a 2.8% growth in comparable store sales. Ollie’s plans to open 75 new stores in 2025, aiming for a 10% annual unit growth, reflecting optimism for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026.
Analyst firms have recently weighed in on Ollie’s prospects. Piper Sandler cut the stock’s price target to $124 but maintained an Overweight rating, citing Ollie’s strong outlook for 2025 and potential market share gains from Big Lots’ liquidation. Citi reiterated a Buy rating with a $133 price target, noting better-than-expected same-store sales and a promising start to the first quarter. Truist Securities raised its price target to $126, maintaining a Buy rating, and highlighted Ollie’s robust fourth-quarter performance despite challenges like competitive store closures.
These developments come amid a broader landscape of uncertain consumer spending, with analysts expressing confidence in Ollie’s strategic positioning and its ability to capitalize on market dynamics. The company’s focus on value-oriented offerings and strategic growth initiatives, such as the acquisition of Big Lots store leases, are expected to bolster its market presence and drive future growth.
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