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On Thursday, Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) analyst Greg Harrison revised the price target for Geron Corporation (NASDAQ:GERN) stock to $4.00 from the previous $6.00, while retaining a Sector Outperform rating. The stock, currently trading at $1.61, has experienced a significant decline of 38.78% in the past week. The adjustment follows the company’s fourth-quarter results for 2024, which met the preannounced expectations but raised concerns due to a noticeable slowdown in the launch momentum for its product Rytelo in treating lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (LR-MDS).
Geron reported $47.5 million in net product revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024, contributing to total revenues of $76.99 million for the last twelve months, primarily driven by sales to patients who have relapsed or are refractory to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and are in their third line of therapy or beyond. The company’s revenue figures slightly exceeded their internal estimates. However, the uptake of Rytelo in the first and second lines of therapy has been limited. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 5.56, though it’s currently experiencing rapid cash burn.
During the earnings call, management highlighted that the number of new patients starting Rytelo treatment has plateaued, which has become a focus of concern for investors and analysts. Moreover, the duration of therapy is reportedly aligning with the approximately eight-month period observed in the IMerge phase 3 study.
Scotiabank’s decision to maintain the Sector Outperform rating indicates a continued positive outlook on Geron’s stock, despite the reduced price target. The new target reflects Scotiabank’s revised expectations for the trajectory of Rytelo’s market introduction. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with analyst targets ranging from $2.00 to $10.00. The full report by Scotiabank includes a detailed earnings versus consensus table and a calendar of upcoming catalysts that could potentially affect Geron’s stock performance. For deeper insights into Geron’s valuation and 12 additional exclusive ProTips, explore the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, Geron Corporation reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing a revenue of $47.54 million, which fell short of the anticipated $61.93 million. The company’s earnings per share also missed expectations, coming in at -$0.04 compared to the forecasted -$0.03. Despite this, Geron reported a strong cash position of $502.9 million at the end of the year. Analysts from H.C. Wainwright downgraded Geron’s stock rating from Buy to Neutral, citing a flat revenue outlook and a strategic shift towards enhancing product awareness among healthcare professionals. Meanwhile, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on Geron but reduced the price target from $10.00 to $5.00, reflecting concerns over the flattening sales trend of Rytelo, the company’s key product. Geron is focusing on expanding Rytelo’s adoption in earlier lines of therapy as part of its growth strategy. The company plans to conduct more trials in 2025 to explore new applications for Rytelo, aiming to increase its market penetration.
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