Stifel lifts Abeona stock target to $21, maintains buy rating

On Tuesday, Stifel analysts demonstrated confidence in Abeona Therapeutics (NASDAQ:ABEO) by raising the price target from $14.00 to $21.00, while reiterating a Buy rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro data, analyst consensus remains highly bullish with targets ranging from $9.50 to $25.00, while the stock currently trades at $5.25 with a market capitalization of $254.56 million. The adjustment follows the FDA’s approval of Zevaskyn for treating wounds in patients with recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB), both adults and children. This approval is seen as a pivotal moment for the company, shifting the focus towards the commercialization of what is expected to be a high-margin product. With the stock showing a 55.52% return over the past year, InvestingPro analysis indicates the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, though it’s currently trading above its Fair Value estimate.

Stifel’s analysis highlights several key takeaways from the management’s post-approval discussion. Notably, the wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) for Zevaskyn is set at $3.1 million, surpassing Stifel’s initial estimate of $2.25 million. Additionally, Abeona plans to implement outcomes-based agreements with payers, which could include potential rebates over a three-year period after treatment. Investors should note that InvestingPro data shows the company’s next earnings report is due on May 8, which could provide crucial insights into the commercialization strategy. InvestingPro subscribers have access to 8 additional key insights about ABEO’s financial health and market position.

The company has also provided an indirect revenue forecast for FY25, which suggests treatment for approximately 10 to 14 patients by year-end. Stifel’s optimism is further buoyed by the company’s potential to reach a break-even point with a modest treatment rate of roughly three patients per month.

Stifel’s revised price target incorporates several factors: increased regulatory certainty in the U.S., the impact of the higher-than-anticipated Zevaskyn pricing, and an adjusted estimate for ex-U.S. pricing discounts, now expected to be between 15-20% as opposed to the previous 5-10%. Despite these changes, Stifel’s U.S. treatment volume projections for Abeona, including estimates for 12, 46, and 70 patients in FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively, remain unchanged. The firm’s continued Buy rating reflects its positive outlook on Abeona’s prospects.

In other recent news, Abeona Therapeutics reported a significant earnings per share (EPS) beat for the fourth quarter of 2024, posting an EPS of $0.50 compared to the anticipated loss of $0.35 per share. Despite this positive earnings surprise, the company reported zero revenue against a projected $100,000. The company’s cash position improved to $98.1 million by the end of 2024, up from $52.6 million in 2023. Manufacturing capacity is set to increase to meet potential demand for its lead product, Pradimigene zamytereso, with an FDA decision expected in April 2025. Stifel analysts recently initiated coverage on Abeona Therapeutics with a Buy rating and a price target of $14.00, citing optimism for its lead product candidate, pz-cel, as a treatment for recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB). The analysts anticipate peak worldwide sales of pz-cel could reach approximately $400 million. Abeona’s research and development expenses rose to $34.4 million in 2024, reflecting ongoing investments, while general and administrative expenses increased to $29.9 million. The company projects significant revenue potential, estimating over $2 billion in cumulative revenue in the U.S. alone for its lead product.

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