Stifel lowers Vertex stock price target to $25 amid macro softness

Published 07/08/2025, 15:56
Stifel lowers Vertex stock price target to $25 amid macro softness

Investing.com - Stifel has reduced its price target on Vertex (NASDAQ:VRTX) Inc. (NASDAQ:VERX) to $25.00 from $31.00 while maintaining a Hold rating on the tax software provider’s stock. The stock currently trades at $27.95, with InvestingPro data showing analyst targets ranging from $29 to $54. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears fairly valued at current levels.

The price target adjustment follows Vertex’s second-quarter results that merely met expectations, alongside a reduction in the company’s fiscal year 2025 guidance due to broad macroeconomic weakness and delayed ERP migration activity. The company maintains a 15% year-over-year revenue growth rate, with annual revenue reaching $710.5 million. InvestingPro analysis reveals 13 key insights about Vertex’s financial health and market position, including growth prospects and valuation metrics.

Vertex shares dropped approximately 20% on Thursday as investors reacted to the news that included a $10 million headwind from true-ups and entitlement growth challenges, which caused the company’s net revenue retention rate to slip to 108% from 109% in the first quarter and 110% in the second quarter of 2024. Technical indicators from InvestingPro suggest the stock is currently in oversold territory, with the stock down 52.3% over the past six months.

The company now projects second-half subscription growth of approximately 12%, though management expressed confidence in its ability to reaccelerate growth in coming quarters driven by normalized net revenue retention growth, uptake of its recently released eInvoicing product, and anticipated increases in ERP upgrade activity.

In response to current conditions, Vertex is reducing headcount growth and leveraging internal technology investments to protect profit margins, a move Stifel characterized as "absolutely the right move" while cautioning it suggests a quick rebound in growth rates should not be expected.

In other recent news, Vertex Inc . reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings with a non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.15, slightly surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.14. The company’s revenue was $184.6 million, aligning with analyst expectations and marking a 15% year-over-year growth, with 12% being organic. Despite these results, Vertex adjusted its outlook for the year due to lower usage growth and a slowdown in the SAP ecosystem. Following the earnings report, BMO Capital lowered its price target for Vertex to $30 from $38, maintaining a Market Perform rating. Similarly, Citizens JMP reduced its price target to $50 from $61, while keeping a Market Outperform rating. DA Davidson also assumed coverage on Vertex with a Neutral rating, setting a price target of $29. These developments reflect the mixed reactions from analysts regarding Vertex’s recent performance and future prospects.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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