Stifel maintains Autodesk stock Buy rating, $310 target

On Tuesday, Stifel analysts maintained a Buy rating for Autodesk stock (NASDAQ:ADSK) with a price target of $310.00. According to InvestingPro data, analyst consensus remains bullish with price targets ranging from $265 to $430, while the company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 92%. The firm’s analysis included conversations with three platinum-level channel partners of Autodesk to gauge business trends before the company’s first-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings report, scheduled for May 22, 2023. The feedback received was mixed, with one partner performing in line with expectations and two not meeting planned targets. The inconsistency was attributed to the challenging macroeconomic environment affecting new seat growth and the transition to a new transaction model.

Despite these challenges, two partners reported a positive shift in industry sentiment, particularly due to delayed tariffs and potential deregulation. Stifel acknowledged the limited scope of their inquiry but projected that Autodesk would post first-quarter results in line with expectations and maintain its fiscal year 2026 guidance. The company has demonstrated solid performance with revenue growth of 11.5% over the last twelve months, though InvestingPro analysis indicates it’s trading at relatively high earnings multiples. The upcoming earnings report is anticipated to center on the broader economic conditions, Autodesk’s restructuring efforts, margin trends, the impact of the new transaction model, and future guidance.

The analysis by Stifel suggests that while the current economic climate and transition to a new business model may affect Autodesk’s short-term performance, the overall outlook for the company is positive. They anticipate that the disruptions currently affecting Autodesk’s narrative are likely to resolve in the future.

Autodesk shares ended the trading day on Monday at $295.90, near its 52-week high of $326.62. The upcoming earnings report, scheduled for May 22, and the company’s response to the existing challenges will be closely watched by investors and industry observers alike. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently fairly valued, with 12 additional exclusive insights available to subscribers.

In other recent news, Autodesk’s upcoming first-quarter earnings report has garnered attention, with KeyBanc Capital Markets maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock, albeit lowering the price target to $323. The firm anticipates Autodesk’s results to align with expectations but suggests a potential slight reduction in the company’s growth guidance for fiscal year 2026. Similarly, Stifel adjusted its price target for Autodesk from $350 to $310 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing the company’s strong business model and strategic initiatives as points of resilience amid a challenging economic environment. DA Davidson also maintained a Neutral rating with a $265 price target, highlighting Autodesk’s over 20% organic growth in its Construction Cloud segment as a positive aspect.

Additionally, Autodesk has expanded its Board of Directors by appointing Jeff Epstein and Christie Simons as part of an agreement with Starboard Value LP, which is expected to enhance the Board’s expertise in technology and finance. The cooperation agreement includes customary standstill and voting provisions, reflecting a constructive dialogue between Autodesk and Starboard. KeyBanc noted incremental weakness in the manufacturing sector and a pull-forward activity in the previous quarter as factors influencing Autodesk’s current performance. Despite these challenges, the firm remains optimistic about Autodesk’s long-term growth opportunities, particularly in the construction and infrastructure sectors.

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