What the bad jobs report means for markets
On Monday, Stifel analyst Annabell Samimy maintained a Buy rating on Altimmune stock (NASDAQ:ALT), with a steady price target of $18.00. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for ALT range from $12 to $28, with the stock currently trading at $5.59. The company, with a market capitalization of $430.51M, has demonstrated strong financial discipline, maintaining more cash than debt on its balance sheet. The focus of the firm’s commentary was on the upcoming Phase 2b IMPACT readout for Altimmune’s drug candidate pemvidutide, a GLP-1/GCG dual agonist being developed to target cardiometabolic disease, specifically non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). While the company reported an EBITDA of -$102.93M in the last twelve months, its strong liquidity position, with a current ratio of 13.11, provides adequate runway for its drug development programs.
Samimy highlighted the potential of pemvidutide to be among the first incretins to not only provide resolution and fibrosis improvement within 6 months but also offer significant weight loss benefits. This would be a notable improvement over current incretins, which may take up to 1-1.5 years to show similar fibrosis results, and do not offer the weight loss advantage.
The efficacy of pemvidutide has been underscored by its ability to produce clinically meaningful weight loss and preserve muscle mass. More importantly, the drug has shown rapid and robust reductions in liver fat and serum lipids, which are critical biomarkers for assessing cardiovascular risk.
Stifel’s analysis suggests that achieving statistical significance in fibrosis improvement, along with the added benefit of weight loss, would serve as sufficient validation for pemvidutide. Additionally, outperforming Rezdiffra’s fibrosis improvement would represent a substantial achievement for the treatment.
The firm has calculated a 60% probability of success (PoS) for these favorable outcomes, indicating a positive outlook for the drug’s development and potential market impact. The anticipation surrounding the Phase 2b IMPACT readout is high, as it could confirm the therapeutic benefits and market potential of pemvidutide in addressing a critical aspect of cardiometabolic health. With the next earnings announcement scheduled for May 13, 2025, investors following ALT can access comprehensive analysis and additional insights through InvestingPro, which offers exclusive financial metrics and real-time updates for over 1,400 US stocks.
In other recent news, Altimmune has been the focus of several analyst reports, highlighting its drug pemvidutide and its potential in treating liver-related diseases. Analysts from Citizens JMP, H.C. Wainwright, JMP Securities, and Stifel have all maintained positive ratings for the company, with price targets ranging from $12 to $25. A significant point of interest is the upcoming results from the Phase 2b IMPACT trial, which could potentially establish pemvidutide as a leading treatment for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). Analysts are optimistic about pemvidutide’s ability to improve liver conditions significantly in a short timeframe, setting it apart from existing treatments.
The drug’s dual receptor agonist approach is being closely watched for its potential to address other conditions such as obesity, alcohol use disorder (AUD), and alcoholic liver disease (ALD). Altimmune’s financial position is robust, with a cash runway extending into the second half of 2026, ensuring the company is well-prepared to advance through clinical milestones. Analysts have highlighted the potential for pemvidutide to achieve statistical significance in fibrosis improvement and meaningful weight loss, which could lead to a substantial increase in Altimmune’s market cap. The anticipation surrounding the IMPACT trial results and Altimmune’s strategic focus on expanding treatment options have bolstered confidence in the company’s future prospects.
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