Stifel maintains Buy rating on Vail Resorts stock with $217 target

On Thursday, Stifel analysts, led by Jeffrey Stantial, reiterated their Buy rating on Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) with a steady price target of $217.00. The stock, currently trading at $163.96, has seen analyst targets ranging from $152 to $247, with InvestingPro analysis indicating the stock is currently undervalued based on its Fair Value model. Stantial shared insights from the company’s annual investor conference held at Whistler Blackcomb, British Columbia. The conference primarily focused on Vail Resorts’ long-term strategy rather than short-term operational trends or financial objectives.

Stantial noted several key points from the conference. Firstly, although specific data was limited, the launch year of Epic Gear, Vail Resorts’ rental service, showed positive signs. The service added value to the existing rental business and received favorable guest feedback. There is potential for further improvements in logistics and execution. This initiative comes as the company maintains solid financial performance, with revenue growing 3.57% over the last twelve months to $2.95 billion and a healthy gross profit margin of 44.5%. InvestingPro subscribers can access 8 additional key insights about Vail Resorts’ financial health and growth prospects. Secondly, despite recent negative media coverage, year-over-year and two-year comparison scores of the Net Promoter Score (NPS) at Vail Resorts’ destination properties have increased, excluding Park City (NYSE:TRAK). Lastly, the management team is confident in maintaining organic top-line growth, despite headwinds faced over the past four years. This growth is supported by a $100 million resource efficiency initiative.

The analyst expressed that the forthcoming third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for June 5, 2025, could be a significant event that supports their thesis of a reversion to the mean for the company’s stock multiple. Stantial made no changes to his financial model or the $217 target price for Vail Resorts’ shares. According to InvestingPro, the company maintains a "FAIR" overall financial health score of 2.41 out of 5, with particularly strong profitability metrics. The company has also demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining dividend payments for 15 consecutive years with a current yield of 5.42%.

Vail Resorts’ commitment to long-term growth and efficiency, along with the positive developments in its rental service and customer satisfaction, appear to underpin Stifel’s continued optimism in the stock. The analyst’s reaffirmation of the Buy rating suggests confidence in the company’s strategy and future performance, with the next earnings report being a potential catalyst for the stock.

In other recent news, Vail Resorts reported strong fiscal second-quarter earnings, surpassing expectations with revenue of $1.137 billion and an EBITDA of $458 million. Despite challenges such as foreign exchange impacts, the company adjusted its Resort Adjusted EBITDA guidance slightly downward, but maintained a positive outlook for the fiscal year 2025 with a target of $866 million. Truist Securities reiterated a Buy rating with a $247 price target, highlighting the company’s consecutive quarters of outperforming earnings expectations. Stifel also maintained a Buy rating with a $217 target, pointing to stable booking trends and a shift in destination guest visitation patterns. Jefferies, however, reduced its price target to $173 while keeping a Hold rating, citing concerns about weather unpredictability and its impact on third-quarter volumes. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) adjusted its price target to $215 but maintained an Outperform rating, noting a slowdown in visitation despite strong second-quarter results. Meanwhile, BofA Securities kept a Neutral rating with a $185 target, acknowledging the company’s strategic positioning and pre-committed revenue as mitigating factors for the ski season. These developments reflect a mixed but generally positive sentiment among analysts regarding Vail Resorts’ financial performance and future prospects.

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