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On Friday, TD Cowen analysts adjusted their outlook on Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST), reducing the price target to $175 from the previous $180, while maintaining a Buy rating on the company’s stock. The adjustment reflects a more conservative stance by the analysts in light of recent market conditions and company guidance. For investors seeking deeper insights into retail sector valuations, InvestingPro offers comprehensive analysis tools and research reports covering over 1,400 US stocks.
The analysts noted that the valuation gap between Ross Stores and its competitor TJX Companies Inc (NYSE:TJX). is too wide, considering Ross’s capabilities to deliver comparable same-store sales (SSS), earnings per share (EPS), return on invested capital (ROIC), and free cash flow (FCF) growth. TJX, currently trading at a P/E ratio of 28.9x with a market capitalization of $139.7 billion, has demonstrated strong performance with a 23.8% return over the past year. Despite acknowledging the differences in geographic exposure, customer demographics, and vendors between the two companies, the sentiment towards Ross Stores has been negatively influenced by discussions around tariffs, immigration, and deportation.
Ross Stores management has provided guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, anticipating same-store sales growth of 2% to 3%, which builds on a strong 7% comp in the same quarter of the previous year. TD Cowen’s analysts have aligned their estimates with this guidance, projecting a 2.0% increase in same-store sales, which sits slightly below the consensus estimate of 2.7%.
The new price target set by TD Cowen, at $175, is based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23 times the fiscal year 2026 estimated earnings. The analysts have fine-tuned their estimates to better match what they believe management will project in their upcoming guidance, taking into account the current retail environment and the specific challenges faced by Ross Stores.
In other recent news, The TJX Companies reported impressive fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2025, surpassing analyst expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.23, compared to the forecasted $1.16. The company also reported revenue of $16.35 billion, exceeding the anticipated $16.19 billion. Following this announcement, BMO Capital Markets raised their price target for TJX Companies shares to $145 from $133, maintaining an Outperform rating, citing a top and bottom-line beat in the company’s earnings. Meanwhile, TD Cowen slightly lowered its price target to $137 from $138, while still reiterating a Buy rating, highlighting the company’s robust business model and efficient cost management.
BMO Capital noted that all business segments of TJX performed better than anticipated, particularly in comparable store sales, despite the company setting conservative guidance for the upcoming fiscal year. The TJX Companies exceeded the high end of its initial EPS guidance by 6% in fiscal year 2025, and analysts at TD Cowen see potential for the company to surpass expectations in fiscal year 2026. Despite an anticipated increase in capital expenditures, TJX is projected to reach a record $5.4 billion in free cash flow by fiscal year 2027, according to TD Cowen.
Additionally, TJX plans to open 130 new stores in fiscal year 2026, reflecting their commitment to expanding market presence. The company remains optimistic about future growth, as evidenced by strong customer traffic and inventory availability, suggesting continued success. These developments provide a comprehensive view of TJX Companies’ recent performance and future outlook, as analyzed by industry experts.
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