Tesco stock under pressure as rivals stabilize market share, RBC warns

Published 19/11/2024, 08:40
Tesco stock under pressure as rivals stabilize market share, RBC warns

On Tuesday, RBC Capital initiated coverage on Tesco (OTC:TSCDY) Plc (TSCO:LN) (OTC: TSCDY) stock, assigning a Sector Perform rating with a price target of GBP3.75.

The firm's analysis indicates that Tesco, which currently holds approximately 28% of the UK grocery market share, has experienced a modest increase in market presence over the past two years. This growth is attributed primarily to declines seen by competitors Asda and Morrisons.

The report by RBC Capital suggests that Tesco's recent market share gains have been the result of weaker performance from these rivals. However, it anticipates that Asda and Morrisons may see stabilization in their market shares due to improvements in their competitive offerings, steered by their new leadership teams. This expected stabilization could present a challenge to Tesco's ability to further expand its market dominance.

Additionally, the analyst notes that Sainsbury (LON:SBRY)'s is aiming to augment its presence in larger store formats, which could also influence the competitive landscape. This strategic move by Sainsbury's is identified as another potential obstacle to Tesco's market share growth.

The Sector Perform rating reflects the analyst's view that while Tesco is a leading force in the UK grocery sector, the company may find it difficult to secure additional market share moving forward. This outlook is based on the premise that Tesco's main competitors are poised to reinforce their positions in the market.

RBC Capital's price target of GBP3.75 for Tesco's stock is informed by the current market analysis and the potential challenges that lie ahead for the company in terms of market share expansion. The report emphasizes the dynamic nature of the UK grocery market and the continuous shifts in competitive strategies among the leading players.

In other recent news, Tesco Plc has seen its stock price target raised by both HSBC and Citi, with both firms maintaining a Buy rating for the supermarket giant. The new price targets have been set at GBP4.20 and GBP4.25, respectively, demonstrating optimism in Tesco's recent performance.

HSBC's updated outlook is based on Tesco's robust first half of the year, which positions the company to potentially surpass its own forecast for fiscal year 2025.

HSBC's projections estimate a group operating profit of GBP3.04 billion, including retail adjusted operating profit of GBP2.96 billion. This is further bolstered by the company's potential for substantial free cash flow generation, anticipated between GBP1.4 billion and GBP1.8 billion.

Citi's updated outlook is based on recent UK Kantar grocery data and forecasts a 0.4 percentage point acceleration in Tesco's second-quarter 2025 retail like-for-like sales to 3.8%. They also predict a stronger-than-anticipated performance with an estimated 5.1% increase in UK like-for-like sales for the second quarter of 2025.

Both firms anticipate continued growth and positive returns for Tesco in the coming months, underlining the company's commitment to return value to its shareholders. These are recent developments, and further updates are expected as the company progresses through the fiscal year.

InvestingPro Insights

To complement RBC Capital's analysis of Tesco Plc, InvestingPro data offers additional insights into the company's financial health and market position. Tesco's market capitalization stands at $29.62 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the UK grocery market. The company's P/E ratio of 18.47 suggests a reasonable valuation relative to its earnings, while its revenue of $91.36 billion for the last twelve months underscores its position as a major player in the industry.

InvestingPro Tips highlight Tesco's financial strength and market strategy. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, which could indicate management's confidence in the business and commitment to returning value to shareholders. This aligns with Tesco's efforts to maintain its market leadership as discussed in the article. Additionally, Tesco is trading at a low earnings multiple, which may suggest potential undervaluation in light of its market dominance.

These insights from InvestingPro provide a broader context to Tesco's financial position and strategy, complementing the market share analysis presented in the article. For investors seeking a more comprehensive view, InvestingPro offers 7 additional tips that could further illuminate Tesco's investment potential.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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