TKO Group stock price target raised to $200 by Guggenheim on strong business outlook

Investing.com - Guggenheim has raised its price target on TKO Group Holdings (NYSE:TKO) to $200.00 from $190.00 while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The company, currently trading at $174.48 with a market capitalization of $34.5 billion, has shown impressive momentum with a 65% return over the past year. According to InvestingPro data, analysts maintain a bullish consensus on TKO, with price targets ranging from $117 to $220.

The research firm updated its model to reflect several factors, including a shift in revenue and EBITDA allocation from the Winter 2026 and Summer 2028 games at On Location, which Guggenheim now believes skews more toward a 20/80 split for both revenue and EBITDA.

Guggenheim also cited PBR’s media rights deal with FOX Nation and ongoing strength in both the core WWE and UFC businesses, driven by sponsorship, live events, and site fees this year.

The firm’s core UFC/WWE EBITDA outlook of $1.438 billion exceeds TKO’s guidance range of $1.390 billion to $1.430 billion, while its 2025 total EBITDA forecast, including the EDR assets, stands at $1.537 billion compared to company guidance of $1.490 billion to $1.530 billion.

Guggenheim remains bullish on the outlook for both the UFC and Peacock/PLE renewals, with multiplier estimates of 2.0x and 1.9x respectively, which the firm believes "could ultimately prove conservative."

In other recent news, TKO Group Holdings reported a quarterly revenue of $1.27 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $417 million, surpassing market expectations. This strong performance was notably influenced by recent acquisitions, including assets from IMG, although organic growth in core segments showed mixed results. TKO Group also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.38 per share, totaling approximately $75 million, payable to shareholders in June 2025. Analysts from Bernstein SocGen reiterated their Outperform rating for TKO Group, citing growth opportunities in live sports entertainment and potential benefits from recent acquisitions. They expect the UFC rights renewal to exceed $1 billion annually, enhancing TKO’s growth prospects. Meanwhile, TD Cowen raised its price target for TKO Group to $220, acknowledging the positive impact of recent acquisitions on future earnings and cash flow growth. However, Benchmark analysts maintained a Hold rating, expressing concerns over uneven organic growth and potential risks in TKO’s integration and strategy execution. Despite these concerns, TKO’s management remains optimistic, promoting their "TKO Takeover" strategy as a key growth driver.

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