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On Wednesday, Evercore ISI increased the price target for Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) to $169.00 from $167.00, maintaining an Outperform stock rating. The adjustment follows Toll Brothers’ robust performance in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, which ended in April. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a "GREAT" financial health score of 3.18 and is currently trading at an attractive P/E ratio of 7.07x. Analysis suggests the stock is undervalued, making it an interesting addition to the most undervalued stocks watchlist. The luxury homebuilder reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.58, surpassing both Evercore ISI’s projection of $3.00 and the consensus estimate of $2.83. The results excluded $8 million in land and homebuilding impairments and $1.7 million in option write-offs.
Toll Brothers exceeded expectations in several key financial metrics. The company’s gross margins came in at 27.5%, higher than the estimated 27.25%, consistent with its trailing twelve-month gross profit margin of 28.11%. Home closings reached 2,900, outpacing the forecast of 2,700. With a market capitalization of $10.24 billion, Toll Brothers has demonstrated strong operational efficiency and market presence. Furthermore, selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) were lower than anticipated at 9.5%, compared to the estimate of 10.2%. However, new orders and the average selling price (ASP) for homes did not meet expectations, with orders totaling 2,650 versus the anticipated 3,406, and an ASP of $934,000 against the estimate of $952,000.
Despite these misses, Toll Brothers provided a positive outlook for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 and reaffirmed its full-year guidance across all metrics. The company also highlighted its strategic focus on pricing over sales volume and its reduction in land spending on new deals, aligning with Evercore ISI’s "Less is More" thesis for the homebuilding industry. This strategy emphasizes margin improvement, cash flow, and share repurchases over volume growth.
The company’s share repurchase activity in the quarter notably exceeded Evercore ISI’s expectations. Toll Brothers’ commitment to buybacks and its guidance for increased repurchases in 2025 reflect confidence in the company’s financial strategy and resilience in challenging market conditions. This aligns with one of twelve key InvestingPro Tips highlighting management’s aggressive share buyback strategy. For deeper insights into Toll Brothers’ financial health and future prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers, along with detailed analysis of 1,400+ other top US stocks.
In light of these developments, Evercore ISI has adjusted its full-year 2025 EPS forecast for Toll Brothers to $14.51, a slight increase from the previous $14.32 estimate. However, the firm has decreased its full-year 2026 EPS estimate to $14.90 from $15.11. Evercore ISI reiterated its Outperform rating and set a price target of $169, based on 11.5 times the firm’s forward twelve months earnings estimate. The analysis concluded with a positive outlook on the company’s ability to navigate the current market and the expectation that improved consumer confidence will lead to a reassessment of large-cap homebuilder stocks.
In other recent news, Toll Brothers Inc. announced its second quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, which significantly exceeded expectations. The company reported earnings per share of $3.50, surpassing the projected $2.84, and revenue of $2.74 billion, exceeding the anticipated $2.5 billion. This robust performance reflects strong operational execution and market demand, leading the company to reaffirm its full-year guidance. Toll Brothers plans to achieve home sales revenue of $10.9 billion and earnings of approximately $14 per share for fiscal 2025. The company also expects to deliver between 11,400 and 11,600 homes, with higher average home prices anticipated in 2026. Despite the challenging market conditions, analysts from firms such as Evercore ISI and UBS have noted Toll Brothers’ strategic focus on price and margin over pace as a positive approach. Additionally, the company’s land strategy and spec inventory management were highlighted as key factors supporting its financial health and future growth. These recent developments underscore the company’s strong market position and ability to navigate economic uncertainties.
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