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On Thursday, Truist Securities revised its price target for APi Group Corporation (NYSE:APG), increasing it from $48.00 to $54.00, while reiterating a Buy rating on the shares. The adjustment followed an optimistic investor day held in New York City on Wednesday. APi Group Corporation, which operates in the life safety and industrial services sectors, presented its 2028 financial targets, which align with analysts’ forecasts and suggest an 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in free cash flow (FCF) over the next four years. The company’s strong outlook is supported by data from InvestingPro, which shows six analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward, with the stock demonstrating remarkable momentum, gaining over 28% year-to-date.
Jasper Bibb, an analyst with Truist Securities, noted that APi Group remains their top pick in the sector. Bibb highlighted that the company is currently undervalued, trading at a discount compared to private peer mergers and acquisitions (M&A) EBITDA multiples. Additionally, APi Group’s projected 2025 FCF Yield is estimated at 5.7%, which is more favorable than the 3.9% yield of its Life Safety public comparables.
APi Group’s recent presentation emphasized its strategic positioning as a defensive growth story, which, according to Truist Securities, positions it well for relative outperformance in the face of uncertain macroeconomic conditions. The firm’s outlook is based on APi Group’s solid free cash flow prospects and its comparison to industry peers. Recent financial data supports this view, with the company generating $601 million in levered free cash flow over the last twelve months and maintaining a robust revenue growth CAGR of 11% over the past five years.
The company’s stock is expected to benefit from its strategic initiatives and financial goals, as outlined during the investor day. APi Group’s focus on growth and value creation, along with its defensive posture, are key factors that contribute to Truist Securities’ positive outlook on the stock.
Investors may take note of Truist Securities’ updated price target as an indicator of APi Group’s potential for financial performance and market valuation in the coming years. The company’s emphasis on generating robust free cash flow and its attractive valuation metrics relative to peers provide a basis for investment consideration.
In other recent news, APi Group Corporation reported impressive first-quarter results, surpassing analyst expectations with a revenue of $1.7 billion, which marked a 7.4% year-over-year increase. The company also met analyst projections with adjusted earnings per share of $0.37. Following these results, APi Group raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $7.4-$7.6 billion, up from the previous forecast of $7.3-$7.5 billion. The company also increased its adjusted EBITDA outlook to $985-$1,035 million. Additionally, APi Group announced ambitious long-term financial goals, targeting over $10 billion in net revenues by 2028 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16% or more. The firm also set a goal for 60% of net revenues to come from inspection, service, and monitoring by 2028. In a strategic move, APi Group’s board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, replacing its previous authorization. Furthermore, the company revealed a three-for-two stock split, scheduled for June 30, 2025.
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