Twilio shares upgraded to Buy, price target set on road to recovery

Published 15/11/2024, 14:24
Twilio shares upgraded to Buy, price target set on road to recovery

On Friday, Monness, Crespi, Hardt raised its rating on Twilio Inc. (NYSE:TWLO) shares from Neutral to Buy, setting a price target of $135.00. The firm believes Twilio is poised for recovery and notes the stock's value remains appealing despite a significant drop from its peak. Twilio's stock has fallen 79% from its highest point, currently holding the lowest enterprise-value-to-revenue multiple in the firm's software coverage.

Twilio, once seen as a high-growth, innovative software vendor, saw its prospects brighten during the COVID-19 pandemic as the importance of its digital platform became clear. The company's stock reached an all-time high in early 2021 due to strong customer demand. However, as the pandemic concerns peaked and the global economy reopened, Twilio's growth rate sharply declined, exposing a bloated cost structure and inefficient acquisition strategy.

The downturn in Twilio's fortunes led to multiple rounds of layoffs and eventually resulted in a change of leadership, with Khozema Shipchandler taking over as CEO in January 2024. Since then, Twilio has been on a path of restructuring and recovery. The firm's analyst believes that heading into 2025, Twilio has the potential to continue this recovery trajectory.

The analyst's comments highlighted the contrast between Twilio's past high performance and its current undervalued state. They expressed confidence in the company's ability to bounce back, citing the attractive valuation of its stock. The new price target of $135 reflects this optimism for Twilio's future performance in the market.

In other recent news, Twilio Inc. has reported a 10% increase in revenue, reaching $1.134 billion in Q3 2024. The cloud communications firm's non-GAAP income from operations rose to a record $182 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 16.1%. Twilio's Communications segment was a significant contributor, generating $1.060 billion, propelled by growth in messaging and email services.

Meanwhile, the firm's emphasis on integrating artificial intelligence and machine learning, including the use of OpenAI's API, aims to enhance customer personalization and operational efficiency. However, the company's Segment business is yet to reach breakeven, reporting a non-GAAP loss of $60 million in Q3.

Looking ahead, Twilio projects revenue growth of 7% to 8% for Q4 and fiscal 2025, and expects significant non-GAAP operating margin expansion in 2025. The company has also repurchased over $2.7 billion in shares as part of its $3 billion share repurchase program. These are among the recent developments for Twilio.

InvestingPro Insights

Recent data from InvestingPro provides additional context to Twilio's current position and potential for recovery. As of the last twelve months ending Q3 2023, Twilio reported revenue of $4.34 billion, with a modest growth rate of 5.77%. While the company is not currently profitable, with an operating income of -$104.11 million, there are signs of improvement. The EBITDA for the same period stood at $117.5 million, showing a remarkable growth of 145.85%.

InvestingPro Tips highlight some positive aspects of Twilio's financial health. The company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, which provides financial flexibility during its restructuring phase. Additionally, management has been aggressively buying back shares, potentially signaling confidence in the company's future prospects.

The market seems to be recognizing Twilio's recovery efforts, as evidenced by the stock's strong performance. InvestingPro data shows a 60.02% price return over the last three months and a 56.26% return over the past year. This aligns with the analyst's view of Twilio's potential for continued recovery.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 14 additional tips for Twilio, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial position and market performance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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