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On Thursday, UBS analyst Fumiyoshi Sakai issued a downgrade for Tsumura & Co (4540:JP) shares from ’Buy’ to ’Neutral’, adjusting the price target to JPY 3,600 from JPY 5,000. The downgrade was primarily attributed to underperformance in the company’s Chinese business, which had previously been expected to drive growth.
Sakai revised downward the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Tsumura & Co for fiscal years ending March 2026, 2027, and 2028. The new forecasts are JPY 366.1, JPY 411.7, and JPY 433.8 respectively, a significant decrease from the earlier projections of JPY 442.9, JPY 479.4, and JPY 521.1. This adjustment comes after a detailed review of the company’s forecasts and medium-term plans announced on May 12, as well as UBS’s earlier earnings forecasts.
The analysis indicates that while sales of domestic traditional Japanese medicines are expected to align with initial assumptions, the China business is projected to face challenges. The anticipated growth in China is now seen as less likely due to delays in expanding marketing routes for drug materials and the decoction pieces business for local customers.
For the fiscal year 2026, UBS anticipates a 10% year-over-year decline in operating profit (OP) to JPY 36 billion, which is below the company’s own guidance of JPY 34.2 billion. This forecasted decrease in OP is thought to be the result of a rise in combined processing and marketing costs by over JPY 9 billion, which is expected to overshadow an estimated JPY 5 billion increase in gross profit. According to Sakai, the company’s operating profit guidance left a negative impression, as it fell short of the expected JPY 40 billion, which would have indicated a steady year-over-year performance.
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