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On Thursday, UBS analyst Jason Napier adjusted the price target for HSBC Holdings (LON:HSBA:LN) (NYSE:HSBC) stock, raising it to GBP9.60, up from the previous GBP8.20. Despite the increase, the firm maintained a neutral rating on the stock. Napier’s assessment followed HSBC’s fourth-quarter performance, which surpassed consensus expectations, particularly due to an adjusted pre-provision profit that was 11% higher than anticipated. The bank, currently valued at $203.65 billion, has demonstrated remarkable momentum with a 73% return over the past year. According to InvestingPro data, the stock appears slightly overvalued at current levels, trading near its 52-week high of $61.88.
HSBC’s banking net interest income (NII) exceeded forecasts by 6%, contributing to the better-than-expected results. Additionally, the company managed to reduce costs by 2%, further boosting its financials. However, loan losses were noted to be 27% higher than what analysts had predicted, coming in at 57 basis points of loans. According to Napier, this did not alter the overall investment thesis for HSBC. InvestingPro analysis reveals the bank maintains a GOOD overall financial health score, with particularly strong momentum metrics. Notably, management has been actively buying back shares while maintaining an attractive 11.66% dividend yield.
The bank’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, a key measure of financial strength, was reported at 14.9%. This figure was slightly below market expectations by 10 basis points but was still considered more than adequate by UBS. Napier highlighted two critical factors for HSBC’s stock: the achievability of the targeted 14-16% adjusted return on tangible equity (ROTE) and the potential growth in profits that this ROTE could indicate over time.
The positive results in income and guidance for cost reduction have led UBS to increase their earnings per share (EPS) estimates for HSBC by 3-11%. The new sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) derived target price is set at 960p or HK$95.4. Despite the uptick in the price target and the stock’s 18% year-to-date increase, UBS’s stance remains neutral. Napier pointed out that HSBC’s stock is currently trading at 8.8 times the fiscal year 2026 earnings estimates, compared to the sector average of 8.4 times and Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF)’s 7.4 times, suggesting that the current valuation is in line with the broader market.
In other recent news, HSBC Holdings has been the focus of several analyst evaluations, highlighting its financial performance and strategic direction. Barclays (LON:BARC) upgraded HSBC’s stock rating from Equalweight to Overweight, raising the price target to £12.00, citing anticipated improvements in earnings and cost efficiencies. CFRA also increased its price target for HSBC shares to $69 while maintaining a Buy rating, driven by the bank’s strong profit before tax in 2024 and its commitment to shareholder returns through elevated dividends and a share buyback program. Meanwhile, Citi reaffirmed its Buy rating and a price target of GBP9.60, expressing confidence in HSBC’s potential for earnings growth despite concerns about restructuring charges and cost guidance.
Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) adjusted its stance on HSBC by downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold, although it raised the price target to GBP9.10. This change reflects a perceived reduction in the stock’s value appeal after a rise in share price, despite HSBC’s ability to sustain a healthy return on tangible equity. Barclays, in a separate update, raised the price target to GBP9.40 while maintaining an Equalweight rating, pointing to potential upside risks to earnings and the need for more information on restructuring plans. These recent developments underscore a varied outlook among analysts, with a mix of optimism and caution regarding HSBC’s future performance and strategic initiatives.
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