UBS maintains Eli Lilly stock Buy rating, $1,100 price target

On Monday, UBS reaffirmed its Buy rating and $1,100.00 price target for Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) shares, which currently trade at $847.24. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets range from $620 to $1,190, with the stock showing strong momentum after delivering a 32% revenue growth in the last twelve months. The firm’s analyst highlighted the pharmaceutical company’s significant first quarter of 2025, noting that Eli Lilly had not met expectations for its products Zepbound and Mounjaro in the previous two quarters. However, the analyst pointed out a positive trend in Total (EPA:TTEF) Prescriptions (TRx), particularly emphasizing that 70% of New Prescriptions (NBRx) are now for Zepbound compared to its competitor Wegovy, indicating a strong demand for Eli Lilly’s product. The company maintains impressive fundamentals with an 81.3% gross profit margin and has demonstrated consistent dividend payments for 55 consecutive years.

The UBS analyst acknowledged that with the release of LillyDirect prescription data starting from February, they have adjusted the figures to account for differences between vials and pens. This analysis led to a projection that is 2% higher than the consensus for Zepbound sales but 2% lower for Mounjaro. Despite these adjustments, the overall sales forecasts are generally aligned with consensus, with lower expectations for Verzenio and Mounjaro being partially balanced by higher projections for Zepbound.

The performance of Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) treatments is expected to be a key determinant of investor sentiment in the first quarter. Looking ahead, the analyst indicated that the forthcoming data on oral diabetes treatment in the second quarter of 2025 is a major factor for the company. The report, referred to as ACHIEVE-1, is highly anticipated, with a 70% Probability of Success (PoS) estimated by UBS. The analyst suggests that a positive outcome from this study could significantly influence investor interest, as it would mark the introduction of the first oral GLP-1 treatment for obesity. With a projected revenue growth of 31% for FY2025 and an overall "GOOD" financial health score from InvestingPro, which offers 13 additional key insights about Eli Lilly’s investment potential in its comprehensive Pro Research Report.

In other recent news, Eli Lilly has introduced its diabetes and weight-loss drug Mounjaro in India, marking a significant step as the country deals with rising obesity and diabetes rates. The drug is available in various dosages, with the 5 mg vial priced at 4,375 rupees ($50.67). Meanwhile, Bernstein SocGen Group has reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Eli Lilly, noting promising pre-clinical findings for the company’s drug Retatrutide, which showed potential in reducing tumor progression in lung and pancreatic cancers. Additionally, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has maintained an Overweight rating on Eli Lilly, setting a price target of $1,146, reflecting confidence in the company’s position in the diabetes care market.

In legal developments, a U.S. federal judge denied an injunction that would have allowed compounding pharmacies to produce copies of Eli Lilly’s weight-loss medication, Zepbound, following a lawsuit challenging the FDA’s prohibition. As Eli Lilly continues to expand its market reach, competitor Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) is planning to launch its obesity drug Wegovy in India by 2025. Novo Nordisk has also introduced a direct-to-patient access program in the U.S. for Wegovy, although Bernstein SocGen Group maintains a cautious stance on its stock. These developments underscore the competitive dynamics in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in the diabetes and weight-loss segments.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.