UBS maintains Neutral on Ionis stock, price target at $45

On Thursday, UBS analyst Esther Rajavelu maintained a Neutral rating for Ionis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:IONS) shares, with a steady price target of $45.00. Currently trading at $31.40, the stock sits near its 52-week low, with analyst targets ranging from $37 to $78. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a "Fair" overall financial health score, with particularly strong marks in cash flow management. The UBS team had a meeting with the Ionis management team in New York City, including the CEO, CFO, EVP of Research, EVP of Product Strategy, and Investor Relations. This meeting followed the company’s participation in the UBS Virtual CNS Day.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is currently focusing on the launch of Tryngolza (olezarsen) for treating familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), a rare genetic disorder. The company’s efforts are directed towards identifying and diagnosing approximately 3,000 U.S. patients with FCS, of which only several hundred have been identified so far. With a robust current ratio of 8.47, the company appears well-positioned to support this commercial launch, though InvestingPro analysis indicates the company isn’t expected to achieve profitability this year. Management indicated that many of these patients might be integrated into the larger severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG) population once the indication for the drug is expanded.

Furthermore, Ionis recently announced a partnership with Sobi to commercialize Tryngolza for both FCS and SHTG outside the United States. Regarding the ongoing studies for olezarsen in SHTG, management anticipates Phase 3 data to be available in the second half of 2025. The company generated revenue of $705 million in the last twelve months, though experiencing a 10.5% decline. Discover more detailed insights and 5 additional ProTips with InvestingPro’s comprehensive research report. These studies are designed to demonstrate triglyceride reduction, but they are also monitoring acute pancreatitis (AP) events. The company acknowledged that the baseline rate of AP events in SHTG is not well-defined, which makes it challenging to power the studies based on AP event reduction. Nonetheless, management expressed that a directional trend in reducing AP events would be significant, and a statistically significant reduction would be exceptionally beneficial.

In other recent news, Ionis Pharmaceuticals has announced a significant licensing agreement with Sobi, granting them exclusive rights to commercialize olezarsen outside the U.S., Canada, and China. This follows the FDA’s approval of olezarsen, branded as TRYNGOLZA™, for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) in the U.S. Ionis is set to receive milestone payments and royalties from Sobi as part of this deal. Additionally, Ionis has secured EU approval for WAINZUA, a treatment for hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis, marking a key expansion in its treatment offerings in Europe. The company also presented promising new data on donidalorsen, an investigational treatment for hereditary angioedema, currently under FDA review.

In terms of financial performance, Ionis reported total revenue of $705 million, exceeding both Bernstein’s and consensus estimates. Despite this, Bernstein adjusted its price target for Ionis to $43 from $51, maintaining a Market Perform rating. This decision reflects adjustments in their valuation model and skepticism about certain asset potentials. On a positive note, Oppenheimer maintained an Outperform rating on Ionis with a $78 price target, highlighting a strategic partnership with Ono Pharmaceuticals to develop sapablursen. This collaboration is expected to bolster Ionis’s market position and support upcoming product launches.

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