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Thursday, UBS analysts maintained a Neutral rating on Tourmaline Oil Corp . (TSX:TOU:CN) (OTC: TRMLF), an $18.2 billion market cap energy company, with a steady price target of Cdn$80.00. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company maintains a GOOD financial health score, with particularly strong metrics in profit and price momentum. The firm’s assessment comes as the oil company prepares to release its first-quarter 2025 financial results. UBS highlighted Tourmaline’s operational productivity improvements in the Deep Basin and increased liquids revenue from the Montney region as positive factors for the company.
The analysts noted that despite these gains, Tourmaline Oil might face challenges due to lower natural gas realizations, influenced by ongoing weakness in the AECO gas market. This situation could potentially result in the need for curtailments during the summer months, similar to previous years. The company’s strong dividend track record, maintaining payments for eight consecutive years with a current yield of 5.61%, provides some comfort to investors during market uncertainties.
Tourmaline Oil’s financial performance at the start of the year is expected to show a slow beginning in free cash flow (FCF) generation. Nevertheless, UBS anticipates that the company’s outlook for 2025 will remain stable. The analysts are also expecting the announcement of another shareholder dividend, projected to be over $0.85 per share, combining base and special dividends.
The UBS commentary emphasized that the key factors to watch in the upcoming earnings update include operational productivity and liquid revenues, balanced against the impact of lower gas prices. The firm’s reiteration of the Neutral rating indicates a cautious but stable view of Tourmaline Oil’s stock ahead of the earnings report.
Investors and market watchers will be looking to Tourmaline’s first-quarter results, scheduled for April 30, to see if the company can sustain its operational successes and manage the potential headwinds from the natural gas market. With analysts forecasting FY2025 EPS of $4.71 and revenue growth of 58%, the expected dividend announcement will also be a point of interest, as it reflects the company’s commitment to returning value to shareholders. For deeper insights into Tourmaline’s financial metrics and additional ProTips, explore InvestingPro.
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