UBS maintains neutral rating on Philip Morris stock amid ZYN outlook

Published 04/06/2025, 15:32
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On Wednesday, UBS analysts reaffirmed their Neutral rating on Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:PM) stock, maintaining the price target at $170.00. The stock, currently trading near its 52-week high of $183.94, has delivered an impressive 83.6% return over the past year. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company appears overvalued at current levels. The decision comes as the company anticipates improvements in the U.S. market for its ZYN nicotine pouches, which have faced supply issues.

The analysts noted that as the stock shortages for ZYN ease in the coming months, the company expects a gradual improvement in product uptake, a trend already visible in Nielsen data. With impressive gross profit margins of 65.7% and revenue growth of 6.8% in the last twelve months, Philip Morris foresees growth in 2025 driven by increased uptake and restocking of ZYN, despite heightened competitive activity in the U.S. nicotine pouch market, where rivals are heavily discounting.

Philip Morris remains optimistic about its leading position in the market, with expectations that combustible cigarette volumes will normalize to a low single-digit decline, including this year. The company also sees a positive impact from its smoke-free products, which offer higher revenue per unit and gross margins.

In addition, the strong U.S. dollar is supporting earnings per share growth, buoyed by favorable foreign exchange conditions. This financial backing may influence the company’s dividend growth strategy, with UBS projecting an 11% increase to $1.50 per share in the third quarter of 2025.

The analysts believe that Philip Morris’s current valuation reflects its strong and resilient operating performance in the face of an uncertain macroeconomic environment, with a projected FY26 price-to-earnings ratio of 22.3 times, representing a 15% premium to U.S. staples.

In other recent news, Philip Morris International Inc. has reaffirmed its 2025 earnings forecast, projecting a diluted earnings per share (EPS) between $7.01 and $7.14. The company expects a currency-neutral growth rate of 10.5% to 12.5% compared to the adjusted EPS of $6.57 in 2024. BofA Securities has raised its price target for Philip Morris stock to $200, maintaining a Buy rating, influenced by the company’s strong smoke-free product strategy. At the recent Annual Meeting of Shareholders, key proposals, including the election of directors and executive compensation, were approved, reflecting strong shareholder support. Philip Morris also issued $2.5 billion in new notes across four tranches, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes. The issuance was facilitated by a consortium of financial institutions, including Barclays (LON:BARC) Capital and Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities. The company continues to expand its smoke-free product offerings, with a focus on its IQOS and ZYN brands. Additionally, Philip Morris is preparing for a broader market entry in the U.S. by expanding its IQOS product to a second pilot market in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

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