UBS reiterates Buy rating on AppLovin stock with $540 price target

Published 07/08/2025, 11:52
UBS reiterates Buy rating on AppLovin stock with $540 price target

Investing.com - UBS maintained its Buy rating and $540.00 price target on AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) in a research note released Thursday. The company has demonstrated remarkable performance, with a 481% return over the past year and impressive gross profit margins of 78%.

UBS increased its fiscal year 2026 EBITDA estimate to $6.18 billion, above the Street consensus of $5.65 billion, citing better-than-expected gaming-related trends in the second and third quarters. The company’s current EBITDA stands at $2.8 billion, with revenue growing at 42% year-over-year.

The firm expressed confidence that AppLovin’s staggered rollout of its self-serve web-based ad platform reduces medium-term risk for web-based advertising revenue growth. The rollout begins in October with referral-based advertisers before moving to general availability in the first half of 2026.

UBS expects this approach will deliver a multi-quarter revenue ramp starting in the fourth quarter with lower advertiser churn risk and expanded inventory access to international markets. The firm believes general availability advertisers will likely ramp spending faster as they benefit from more platform iterations.

The investment bank recommended taking advantage of after-hours weakness in the stock, citing attractive risk/reward at 2.1x, favorable valuation at 37x FY26 P/E versus a 42% three-year EPS CAGR, and improving visibility on the company’s catalyst path. While currently trading at a P/E of 69x, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is overvalued at current levels. Discover 16 additional key insights and comprehensive analysis available on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, AppLovin Corp reported its earnings for the second quarter of 2025, revealing a strong earnings per share (EPS) of $2.39, which surpassed the forecasted $1.95, resulting in a 22.56% surprise. However, the company’s revenue slightly missed expectations, coming in at $1.26 billion compared to the anticipated $1.28 billion, marking a -1.56% surprise. Following these results, several analyst firms adjusted their price targets for AppLovin. BTIG increased its price target to $547 from $483, highlighting the launch and expansion of the company’s "Axon Ads Manager" as a significant development. Goldman Sachs also raised its price target to $445 from $420, citing strong advertising revenue performance after the company’s divestment of its Apps business. Wolfe Research set a new price target of $425, up from $410, following AppLovin’s solid revenue growth of 77%, which exceeded guidance by 4.5%. These recent developments reflect AppLovin’s ongoing focus on its advertising platforms and strategic business adjustments.

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