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UBS downgraded Venture Global (NYSE:VG) from Buy to Neutral on Tuesday, while raising its price target to $18.00 from $14.00. The stock has surged 100.6% since Liberation Day, significantly outperforming the S&P Energy index’s 6.6% gain, the AMZ’s 6.4% increase, and the S&P 500’s 12.9% rise during the same period.
The natural gas company has outperformed its global peer LNG by 95.4% in the two months following Liberation Day. UBS cited limited upside potential based on the recent stock price appreciation as the primary reason for the downgrade, noting the stock has already approached their new price target of $18 per share. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company is trading at elevated multiples, with an EV/EBITDA ratio of 26.1x and a P/E ratio of 22.1x.
Venture Global’s valuation has expanded from 8.1x next-twelve-months EBITDA post-Liberation Day to 10.2x currently, reflecting improved execution and positive momentum. The higher valuation multiple suggests investors have already priced in much of the company’s improved performance outlook. InvestingPro highlights concerning metrics, including rapid cash burn and five analysts revising earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period.
UBS raised its 2026 EBITDA estimate for Venture Global to $6,521 million from $6,290 million, based on higher expected volumes from the company’s Plaquemines facility. The adjustment represents approximately a 3.7% increase in the firm’s earnings projection for that year.
Despite the rating downgrade, UBS maintained a constructive long-term view on the company, stating that fundamentals "will remain strong for this name over the longer term." The firm’s analysis suggests the downgrade is primarily valuation-driven rather than reflecting any deterioration in Venture Global’s business prospects.
In other recent news, Venture Global Inc . reported mixed results for the first quarter, with earnings per share of $0.15, which missed analyst expectations of $0.47. However, the company saw a significant increase in revenue, which surged 105% year-over-year to $2.9 billion, driven by higher LNG sales volumes and prices. The company also updated its 2025 EBITDA guidance to a range of $6.4 billion to $6.8 billion, adjusting from an earlier forecast due to changes in global gas spread forwards. Venture Global has also begun full mobilization and site work at its third LNG export facility, CP2 LNG, after receiving necessary approvals, which is expected to enhance the global LNG supply starting in 2027. In corporate governance developments, all seven director nominees were elected at the company’s 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for the year. Additionally, Goldman Sachs revised its price target for Venture Global shares to $17.50 from $20.00 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing positive expectations for new long-term contracts and progress at the CP2 facility. As Venture Global continues to expand its LNG production, it remains focused on meeting the growing global demand for natural gas.
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