William Blair maintains Outperform on Ecolab amid new surcharge

Published 16/04/2025, 16:04
William Blair maintains Outperform on Ecolab amid new surcharge

On Wednesday, William Blair reiterated an Outperform rating on Ecolab Inc . (NYSE: NYSE:ECL), following the company’s announcement of a 5% trade surcharge on all its solutions and services in the United States, set to take effect on May 1. The surcharge is aimed at mitigating the increased costs of raw materials, packaging, and equipment due to recent changes in tariff rates. According to InvestingPro data, Ecolab currently trades above its Fair Value, with a market capitalization of $67.4 billion and maintains an overall "GREAT" financial health score.

Ecolab, which sourced approximately 90% of its raw materials regionally, reported that delivered product costs account for about 45% of its Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). The firm anticipates that the surcharge will sufficiently cover the tariff-related cost inflation. For the last twelve months, Ecolab reported total revenue of $15.7 billion, with a robust gross profit margin of 43.5%. In 2024, Ecolab generated $8.3 billion in revenue in the U.S., representing 53% of its total revenue. For deeper insights into Ecolab’s financial metrics and exclusive analysis, check out the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

The impact of these tariffs on demand trends among Ecolab’s diverse customer base, including industrial, institutional, healthcare, and pest control sectors, remains uncertain. William Blair expects some near-term effects on volumes due to increased uncertainty but has not yet factored this into their model.

Ahead of Ecolab’s first-quarter results, due on April 29, William Blair has adjusted their revenue forecast for the company to $16.0 billion in 2025, up from the previous $15.8 billion estimate, and to $16.8 billion in 2026, an increase from the earlier $16.6 billion projection. Despite the upward revision in revenue estimates, the firm’s projections for adjusted EPS remain unchanged.

The report explains that the surcharge is expected to offset the increase in COGS from raw material costs on a one-to-one basis. William Blair notes that unlike Ecolab’s typical price increase schedule, which takes a full year to recover COGS from a supply shock, the proactive pricing surcharge should have a more immediate impact. However, this approach may lead to some gross margin pressure, which is anticipated to be recuperated over the subsequent 12 months.

In other recent news, Ecolab Inc. has announced a 5% surcharge on its U.S. services starting May 1, 2025, due to increased costs of raw materials impacted by international trade policies. This move is part of Ecolab’s strategy to manage escalating expenses while continuing to invest in customer service. Additionally, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) has downgraded Ecolab’s stock rating from Overweight to Equal Weight, lowering the price target to $240, citing concerns about slowing industrial activities and market conditions. In contrast, BMO Capital Markets has raised Ecolab’s price target to $305, highlighting the company’s potential for mid-teens earnings per share growth through pricing strategies and internal efficiencies. Piper Sandler also increased their price target for Ecolab to $310, maintaining an Overweight rating, following the company’s strong earnings and optimistic forward guidance. Furthermore, Ecolab has secured a $2 billion unsecured revolving credit agreement, extending its financial leverage maturity to 2030. This new credit facility, led by Bank of America, will support Ecolab’s corporate activities, including potential acquisitions and debt repayment. These developments reflect Ecolab’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position and navigate economic challenges.

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