Wolfe Research downgrades HCA Healthcare stock on payer mix concerns

Published 28/07/2025, 12:20
Wolfe Research downgrades HCA Healthcare stock on payer mix concerns

Investing.com - Wolfe Research downgraded HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE:HCA) from Outperform to Peerperform on Monday, citing concerns about potential multi-year payer mix pressure. According to InvestingPro data, HCA currently maintains a GREAT financial health score, though the stock has declined 8.29% over the past week.

The research firm specifically pointed to potential Exchange pressure in 2026 and Provider Tax pressure in 2028 and beyond as key factors behind the rating change.

Wolfe Research acknowledged HCA’s "unparalleled" ability to execute through periods of turbulence, especially when given time, but emphasized that the downgrade relates to broader industry dynamics detailed in a separate industry report published Monday.

The firm provided a framework for updated 2026 EBITDA-NCI estimates using an 8.75x to 9.75x multiple range before applying a combination of discounted estimates of legislative impacts and estimates assuming resilience.

Wolfe Research’s analysis includes a scenario where HCA maintains operating margins of 19-20% despite potential cuts.

In other recent news, HCA Holdings Inc . reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, surpassing both earnings and revenue expectations. The company achieved earnings per share of $6.84, outperforming the projected $6.27, resulting in a 9.09% positive surprise. Revenue for the quarter reached $18.61 billion, slightly above the anticipated $18.49 billion. These results highlight HCA Holdings’ ability to exceed market forecasts in its latest earnings report. Despite these positive financial figures, the company’s stock experienced a decline in aftermarket trading. Investors may find this earnings performance noteworthy as it demonstrates the company’s financial health and operational efficiency. The recent developments indicate a strong quarter for HCA Holdings, reflecting its ongoing performance in the healthcare sector.

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