China set to accelerate crude stockpiling through 2026, Goldman says

Investing.com -- China is expected to accelerate crude stockpiling this year and through 2026 as Beijing takes advantage of lower prices and prioritizes energy security, Goldman Sachs said.

The bank projects the country will add about 500,000 barrels a day to its reserves over the next five quarters, a pace well above recent estimates of Chinese buying.

Goldman’s head of oil research Daan Struyven said in an interview this week that the buildup reflects both opportunistic purchasing and a strategic drive to shore up inventories.

At the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore, traders noted that Chinese demand has been a key support for prices, offsetting concerns about a looming supply glut. Gunvor’s head of research Frederic Lasserre put the pace of recent additions closer to 200,000 barrels a day.

China’s crude reserves remain one of the country’s most closely guarded secrets, with little transparency on volumes or the precise scale of stockpiling. Much of the oil is also thought to come from sanctioned producers such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, further obscuring the flows.

Despite the buying spree, Goldman continues to expect Brent crude to slide into the mid-$50s a barrel next year, citing an oversupplied market.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday forecast that a record surplus in 2026 will be larger than previously anticipated as OPEC+ and others expand output.

Output is projected to expand by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025, up from an earlier estimate of 2.5 million, followed by an additional 2.1 million barrels a day in 2026.

The increase comes as OPEC and its allies accelerate the unwinding of production cuts, adding more barrels to the market and intensifying concerns over a surplus that has already pressured prices this year.

While demand is also growing, the IEA sees it lagging supply. The agency nudged up its 2025 forecast to 740,000 barrels per day, citing stronger consumption in advanced economies, but still expects global appetite to trail behind.

The IEA’s outlook remains more cautious than OPEC’s, reflecting its assumption of a quicker transition toward renewable energy.

Also on Thursday, OPEC reaffirmed its view that demand will grow by 1.29 million barrels a day this year, nearly twice the pace projected by the IEA, and said the world economy remains on solid footing heading into the second half of 2025.