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Citi released a report on the spending plans of International Oil Companies (IOCs), including Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), projecting that capital expenditures (capex) for the five IOCs with plans extending through 2028 will remain approximately flat from 2025 levels at around $70 billion.
Despite Saudi Arabia’s intention to decrease spending and the proportion of upstream investments, the anticipated reduction in the long term may be partly due to lower infrastructure expenses.
Drilling and completion (D&C) spending experienced significant cuts last year, and while further reductions in jackup rigs are possible, unconventional gas investment is expected to increase over the next year.
Moreover, other Middle Eastern regions, such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, are likely to maintain robust spending due to capacity expansion and new offshore discoveries. Additionally, gas developments in North Africa are predicted to escalate in the coming years, and activity in Mexico is set to recover, with a five-year plan indicating a rise in annual spending compared to 2024.
In North America, spending guidance from Exploration & Production (E&P) companies for 2025 aligns with expectations. U.S. E&P spending is projected to fall by about 5%, while Canadian spending should remain relatively unchanged. Although U.S. oil drilling could be jeopardized if oil prices continue to decline, gas investments are poised for a multi-year resurgence.
Citi’s analysis from the previous year estimates that approximately 80 additional gas rigs will be necessary to satisfy an expected growth in gas demand and exports of roughly 20 billion cubic feet per day, which would result in a modest uptick in U.S. activity if oil prices stabilize.
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