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Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs views the recent pullback in gold prices as a buying opportunity and continues to recommend long positions in the metal as its “highest-conviction view in commodities.”
The bank attributes the dip to short-term technical factors, including position liquidation linked to broader equity market weakness and some rotation into alternative assets, but sees enduring support for gold prices over the medium term.
The sell-off followed the U.S. government’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which Goldman believes will weigh on global growth and reinforce the case for defensive assets like gold.
The metal was exempt from new import duties, and analysts do not expect it to be targeted going forward.
Structural demand from emerging market central banks, combined with anticipated increases in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows due to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and recession concerns, are expected to provide further support.
“We maintain our $3,300/toz gold year-end forecast – and our forecast range at $3,250-3,520, reflecting mostly upside risks to investors positioning,” the bank said. “We continue to see risks relative to our forecast skewed to the upside.”
Goldman’s view contrasts with the bearish tone it has taken on other commodities. For oil, it cut its December 2025 Brent and WTI forecasts to $66 and $62 per barrel, respectively, down from $71 and $67.
Weaker global growth expectations and a surprise OPEC announcement of higher May output weighed on the outlook.
In industrial metals, the firm sees near-term risks for copper, particularly if trade tensions escalate, potentially pushing prices below $9,000/t in the second quarter.
Gold, meanwhile, stands out. The bank sees the combination of macroeconomic risks and lighter investor positioning as setting the stage for further gains. “We see this – as well as other potential dips in the gold market – as an opportunity for investors to go long gold,” Goldman wrote.