DUBAI/LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - OPEC and its allies hold a
ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday to look at adjusting
plans for oil supply cuts next year as the coronavirus crisis
continues to drive down demand.
The group known as OPEC+, comprising the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and others, are now due to
wind down cuts that now stand at 7.7 million barrels per day
(bpd) to 5.7 million bpd from January.
But a worsening demand outlook and rising supplies from
countries such as Libya has prompted OPEC+ to consider pushing
back any increase in supply by three or six months.
The following graphics were included in a confidential
report seen by Reuters that was drawn up by an OPEC+ panel,
known as the Joint Technical Committee (JTC). OPEC+ has looked at various scenarios on altering the deal
on output cuts and the impact each scenario would have on
reducing OECD inventories in line with the five-year average.
* Scenario A: The base case adopts modified data from the
November
2020 OPEC monthly report, in particular on oil demand.
* Scenario B: This alternative scenario assumes higher
contractions for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply in 2020,
and lower growth for demand and non-OPEC supply in 2021.
* Scenario C: This assumes extending current crude output
cuts,
using the base case framework, to the end of the first quarter
2021.
* Scenario D: This assumes extending current crude output
cuts,
using the base case framework, to the end of the second quarter
2021.
CONFORMITY WITH CUTS
OPEC+ has yet to achieve full compliance among all members
of the group with the oil cuts agreed in 2020. The group has
asked countries that overproduced to make additional
compensation cuts until the end of the year.
OPEC+ figures show cumulative overproduction for all
participating members is at 2.346 million bpd.
DEMAND
OPEC expects global oil demand to rebound more slowly in
2021 than previously thought due to rising coronavirus cases.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
OPEC+ Scenarios and Impact on Oil Inventories https://tmsnrt.rs/3pCSOLa
Conformity Table https://tmsnrt.rs/3nxZhoV
OPEC Deviation with Oil Cuts https://tmsnrt.rs/3lD8onG
Non-OPEC Deviation with Oil Cuts https://tmsnrt.rs/3f5qe04
OPEC+ Deviation from Oil Cuts https://tmsnrt.rs/38Qn2o7
OPEC+ Conformity with Cuts https://tmsnrt.rs/35FtKeN
OPEC Demand Forecast https://tmsnrt.rs/3kFgz1F
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