Julius Baer lifts gold target to $4,500, sees CB buying lasting up to five years

Published 08/10/2025, 10:30
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Julius Baer lifted its gold price forecasts, saying the yellow metal’s rally remains underpinned by a solid fundamental backdrop and ongoing central bank buying that could last another three to five years.

Spot XAU/USD prices crossed the $4,000 per ounce mark on Tuesday, up more than 50% since the start of the year and on track for its best annual performance since 1979.

“While the past two weeks’ performance feels a lot like ‘the trend is your friend’, we still see a favourable fundamental backdrop,” said Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer .

The bank raised its three- and 12-month price targets to $4,150 and $4,500 per ounce respectively, maintaining its “Constructive” view on gold. Silver targets were also lifted to $50 and $54 per ounce, with a similarly positive outlook.

Menke said the rally has been supported by a cooling U.S. economy, lower interest rate prospects, and a weaker dollar, which continue to draw safe-haven demand.

He added that structural central bank accumulation remains a key driver as emerging markets seek to diversify away from the dollar.

“Assuming a target gold allocation of 20% to 25%, in line with the global average, buying should continue for another three to five years according to our analysis,” Menke wrote.

While acknowledging the risk of a temporary pullback after sharp recent gains, Julius Baer sees little chance of a major correction. “We see a very limited likelihood of a major correction but believe that a temporary setback might occur due to the bullish market mood,” Menke said.

The bank added that any such pause would likely prove short-lived, given the favorable macro backdrop and the continued strength of institutional and central bank demand.

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