Oil prices muted amid U.S.-China trade jitters, oversupply concerns

Published 15/10/2025, 03:00
Updated 15/10/2025, 10:34
© Reuters.

Investing.com-- Oil prices steadied Wednesday, but remained under pressure from heightened U.S.-China trade tensions as well as the International Energy Agency’s warning of a looming supply glut. 

At 05:30 ET (09:30 GMT), Brent oil futures for December fell 0.1% to $62.36 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.1% to $58.74 a barrel. 

Both contracts closed at five-month lows in the previous trading session after the U.S.’s threat of more trade tariffs on China, sparking fears of a renewed trade war, which could hurt oil demand. 

Weak inflation data from China added to oil’s woes, amid signs of continued economic weakness in the world’s largest oil importer. 

IEA warns of supply surplus in 2026

Additionally, the IEA said in a monthly report on Tuesday that the global oil market could see a supply overshoot of as much as 4 million barrels, a bigger surplus than it had previously forecast.

The IEA cited rising oil production, especially in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and sluggish demand as the key drivers of the expected surplus. The agency also trimmed its oil demand growth estimate for 2025 and 2026. 

The IEA report was in sharp contrast to a monthly report from the OPEC released earlier this week, which forecast demand would rise by at least 100% more than the IEA’s outlook. 

The OPEC has steadily increased its production this year, as the cartel wound back two years of production cuts to gain a greater market share. 

U.S. inventory data due

The crude market had been hit last week after the trade dispute between the United States and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers, intensified after China last week announced a major expansion of rare earth export controls and U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 100% and tighten software export curbs from November 1.

Traders will also be awaiting weekly inventory data from the U.S., with crude oil stockpiles expected to have risen last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories likely fell.

Ambar Warrick contributed to this article

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.