Oil edge higher ahead of Trump-Putin summit; weekly losses likely

Investing.com-- Oil prices rose Thursday as focus remained squarely on how an upcoming meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders will affect global supply.

At 08:45 ET (12:45 GMT),  Brent oil futures for October rose 0.5% to $65.94 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.5% to $62.97 a barrel. 

Both contracts are on course for weekly losses of around 1%.

Trump-Putin meeting on Ukraine key

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss terms for a ceasefire with Ukraine. 

Trump on Wednesday threatened “severe consequences” if Putin did not agree to peace, with the U.S. president having earlier threatened steep tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil, namely India and China. 

Trump’s delivering on this threat, coupled with any more restrictions on Russia’s oil industry, stand to curb global oil supplies, and could spur some strength in crude prices, but any loosening of sanctions on Moscow’s energy industry could in turn further dent oil prices.

"Clearly, there’s upside risk for the market if little progress is made," said analysts at ING, in a note. "This could have Trump extending secondary tariffs on other buyers of Russian energy. The expected oil surplus through the latter part of this year and 2026, combined with OPEC spare capacity, means that the market should be able to manage the impact of secondary tariffs on India. But things become more difficult if we see secondary tariffs on other key buyers of Russian crude oil, including China and Turkey." 

Oil battered by supply outlook, U.S. inventory build 

Oil’s losses this week were driven by bearish supply forecasts from both the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency. 

The IEA warned that global oil supplies appeared “bloated,” especially after the OPEC+ steadily hiked its production this year. 

The agency also warned of a looming supply glut in 2025 and 2026, and that demand would cool in the coming months. The IEA sees an oil surplus of 3 million barrels per day in 2026. 

Bearishness towards oil markets was furthered by U.S. data showing a 3 million barrel build in inventories over the past week, which overshot market expectations for a 0.9 million barrel draw.

The print highlighted a coming end to the travel-heavy U.S. summer season, which usually sees three months of elevated fuel demand in the country. 

But demand usually peters out through autumn and towards winter.

Ambar Warrick contributed to this article