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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Investors unwind bearish bets as optimism grows on trade and stimulus

Published 11/09/2019, 10:24
Updated 11/09/2019, 10:30
GLOBAL-MARKETS-Investors unwind bearish bets as optimism grows on trade and stimulus
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* Bonds fall, equities rise as position unwind continues

* World shares in sixth day of gains, emerging markets up

* All eyes on ECB meeting; euro zone fiscal stimulus

prospect

(Updates throughout, changes byline, dateline)

By Sujata Rao

LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - World stocks rose for the sixth

straight day on Wednesday and bond prices fell as investors

continued to unwind safety bets, encouraged by hopes of a

resolution to the Sino-U.S. trade standoff and signs Europe may

be preparing to ease budget spending rules.

Higher-risk assets such as equities and emerging markets

rose almost across the board at the expense of safe-haven plays

such as gold and bonds, as political risk appeared to ease in

Britain, Italy and Hong Kong.

U.S. President Donald Trump's firing of hawkish national

security adviser John Bolton was also seen as a positive, as it

could potentially lead to an easing of tensions with Iran.

There are hints China will go full-throttle with growth

stimulating measures following a raft of dismal data: having

already eased banks' cash curbs, it has now scrapped quota

restrictions on two inbound investment schemes in order to lure

more foreign capital Investors are also awaiting the European Central Bank's

meeting on Thursday at which it is expected to cut interest

rates and unveil more bond buying, though policymakers' comments

have recently raised doubts about the extent of stimulus that

could be delivered.

"We're seeing yields backing up and safe havens and

defensive equities underperform so we are seeing a bit rotation.

I don't think it's a structural shift, it's just that markets

went too far and too soon, and we are seeing alleviation of that

move," said Justin Onuekwusi, a fund manager at Legal & General

Investment Management.

"The market is being driven by two extremes: one if we get

further deceleration in trade, the probability of recession

becomes quite high. But if we get a (Sino-U.S. trade deal) we

could see confidence coming back," he added.

By 0830 GMT, MSCI's world equity index .MIWD00000PUS was

up 0.3% following 0.5-1.5% gains across Asian bourses, including

Tokyo .N225 Seoul .KS11 and Hong Kong .HSI . A pan-European

equity index rose towards five-week highs .STOXX while futures

implied a slightly firmer open on Wall Street ESc1 .

Currency markets too reflected the risk-on mood, the dollar

strengthening 0.2% to 107.795 yen JPY= , its highest in six

weeks, and the British pound hovering near six-week highs of

$1.2385 hit earlier in the week GBP=D3 .

The yen had rocketed towards a 2019 high in August as

investors fretted about recession and market selloffs. Forex

traders often buy the yen in times of uncertainty because of

Japan's vast current account surplus and because Japanese

investors usually bring money home when global markets tank.

But since the start of September it's fallen almost 2%.

"Yen weakness has been reinforced overnight by speculation

that China will implement further measures to ease the negative

economic impact from the trade war with the U.S.," MUFG analysts

told clients.

Broader risk appetite fed through into gains for both the

Australian and New Zealand dollars, which were up 0.1% each

AUD=D3 NZD=D3 . Emerging currencies touched the highest since

mid-August, according to an MSCI index .MIEM00000CUS .

BOND UNWIND

Expectations the ECB will push interest rates deeper into

negative territory have weighed on the euro EUR=EBS , which has

shed 3% since June.

But recent comments from policymakers have played down the

prospect of sizeable asset purchases. That alongside signs

Germany might eventually ease its long-held opposition to

loosening budget rules, lifted bond yields across the bloc.

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday that Germany

could counter economic crises by injecting billions of euros

into the economy. That lifted Germany's 30-year

borrowing costs above zero for the first time in over a month

DE30YT=RR while 10-year bond yields too are 20 basis points

above record lows reached a week ago DE10YT=RR .

"The recent market moves illustrate that expectations maybe

went a bit too far, and with the ECB hawks on parade, doubts

were raised on whether the ECB could meet the high expectation,"

Jan Von Gerich, chief analyst at Nordea, told the Reuters Global

Markets Forum.

"I am still expecting a full package of measures."

U.S. 10-year Treasuries yields also rose back towards a

one-month high of 1.745% hit on Tuesday US10YT=RR while

Japanese 10-year yields too approached one-month high of minus

0.200% JP10YTN=JBTC .

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a 25

basis-point cut when it meets next week, while sources told

Reuters policymakers were open to discussing the possibility of

expanding stimulus at their Sept 18-19 meeting. On commodity markets, Brent futures hovered near their

strongest in six weeks, despite small losses on Tuesday after

the sacking of Bolton as it raised the prospect of Iranian

exports returning to the market. LCOc1

Gold prices snapped a four-day losing streak to rise around

0.3% but they have shed more than 4%, or over $60, since scaling

a more-than six-year peak of $1,557 on Sept. 4. XAU=

(additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano and Tomo Uetake in

Tokyo)

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