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Investing.com - UBS has raised its 2026-2028 copper price forecasts by approximately 15%, targeting $6.0 per pound or about $13,250 per ton in 2027, citing increased conviction that fundamental market tightness will emerge within the next 12 months.
The investment bank has maintained a positive outlook on copper fundamentals for the past two years, primarily expecting limited mine supply growth to result in market tightness that would support sustained price increases.
Recent material output cuts at the Grasberg mine and other downward revisions to 2026 mine supply at operations including QB and Komoa-Kakula have strengthened this conviction.
UBS noted that while higher-than-expected smelter output has kept the refined copper market in surplus recently, the supply disruptions are significant enough to shift the market toward deficit conditions. The bank expects these fundamental supply constraints to support sustained copper price upside.
The investment firm also raised its aluminum price forecasts by approximately 15%, despite acknowledging that the supply and demand outlook for aluminum has not changed materially. UBS expects constructive fundamentals for aluminum to drive up prices, supported by increased pressure for copper-to-aluminum substitution as copper prices rise.
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